Single Agent Analysis

Hypothetical analysis of the damage a single agent could potentially inflict on a national election.

Exit Poll Manipulated, Future in Danger

Created November 21, 2004   

Exit Polls Used to Identify Anomalous Voter Counts

The Presidential election has been criticized by the Nato Parliament and by Senator Richard G .Luger (Indiana Republican). The New York Times article explains:   "The victory ..., by a margin of nearly 3 percentage points, that was given in official results diverged sharply from a range of surveys of voters at polling places that gave the opposition as much as an 11-point lead."   The senator asserts  "A concerted and forceful program of election-day fraud and abuse was enacted with either the leadership or cooperation of governmental authorities."   Election Abuses  The election was in the Ukraine.

This illustrates that the tool commonly used to study and even validate election results is the exit poll. To be most helpful in validation exit poll data would need to be provided in raw (county level) form as it was actually collected together with all its possible flaws. A good researcher can do numerous analyses to study the predictability of the exit polls against reported election results. For example, North Carolina shows troubling anomalies. The exit poll data accurately predicts every statewide race and amendment with the exceptions of the senate race, (6% error in favor of the Republican) and the presidential race (15% in favor of Bush another 500,000 popular vote swing toward his "mandate") The 6% error is sufficient to cost the senate race. Here is evidence that congressional races are being stolen as well as the presidential race. This analysis was posted on a Democratic Underground Discussion and is now lost.

Origin of 2004 Exit Poll Data

This exit poll data was collected by and is under the control of the National Election Pool - NEP (the media) who will not release the detailed data. A number of respected parties including university professors have asked for this data without success. One use would be to look for major discrepancies between the exit poll data and the results for each county or precinct. This may indicate a problem with the exit poll or it may indicate a problem with the vote count. Without the data we cannot even ask the question. The limited studies reported so far are based on statewide data leaked during the election. The first complete official exit poll data for all states and DC as of 4PM EST November 2, 2004 direct from Edison / Mitofsky (NEP) has now surfaced in New Zealand. Exit Poll Data   These numbers differ from most previous partial leaked information available. 42 states show a shift toward Bush and only 9 states show a shift toward Kerry.

Media Manipulation of Exit Poll Numbers

An intereting thing happened to this data on election day. The reported results changed, often dramatically during the election. The data was clearly converging with actual reported vote counts which is highly suspicious. The exit poll data is the exit poll data and should not be modified.

One blogger used data released by CNN about 8AM Nov 3 (yes, twelve hours after most polls closed the exit poll data was still changing.). This cut shows Bush leading Kerry 51% to 48% but for the heck of it our blogger decided to add up the state by state total and KERRY WINS! The blogger tries again adding male and female votes by state and KERRY WINS! Oops. Let's hope whoever hacked the election is as inept as those folks at CNN / NEP. Sorry, another blog lost again for attribution.

Center for Research on Globalization's Michael Keefer states, "The National Election Pool's own data as transmitted by CNN on the evening of November 2 and the morning of November 3 suggest very strongly that the results of the exit polls were themselves fiddled late on November 2 in order to make their numbers conform with the tabulated vote tallies."

How do we know the fix was in? Keefer says the total number of respondents at 9 p.m. was well over 13,000 and at 1:36 a.m. it had risen less than 3 percent to 13,531 total respondents. Given the small increase in respondents, this 5 percent swing to Bush is mathematically impossible. In Florida, at 8:40 p.m., exit polls showed a near dead heat but the final exit poll update at 1:01 a.m. gave Bush a 4 percent lead. This swing was mathematically impossible, because there were only 16 more respondents in the final tally than in the earlier one.

Need For Independent, Academically Sanctioned, Exit Poll Data

Exit polls are too important to be left in the hands of the media. What is required is a citizen controlled scientific academically sanctioned exit poll with adequate sampling at the county level which will be made instantly and publicly available to researchers via the Internet. The media can get the data from the Internet just like everyone else. One movement is underway to undertake such an effort. Please do not email them just now unless you want to volunteer as they are under enormous time pressure to do whatever they can to provide analysis to 2004 candidates interested in challenging an outcome and asking for a recount. Here they are however in the interest of promoting their efforts. Us Together

Threat to End Exit Polls Altogether

Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie has called for the elimination of exit polls altogether GOP Wants to End Exit Polls . Keep your eyes on this issue.  Watch for a rider to show up in an unrelated bill in Congress.  The exit polls are a threat to anyone manipulating election results.

Send your comments to  Dennis Hall

Election Guide
Here in one place is a coherant narrative with links which will
be updated whenever significant events occur.  Beginning
with exit poll data continuing on to statistical anaysis leading
to the focus on optical scan voting machines then continuing
to evidence of actual optical scan problems on to speculation
on fraud mechanisms and finally to progress as we start
the recounts.