Investment Bubbles always Burst (Life after AI)

The Reverse Centaur’s Guide to Life After AI; How to Think About Artificial Intelligence — Before it’s Too Late, Cory Doctorow, 2026

A reverse centaur is a machine that uses a human conscripted to serve as a biological appendage for a machine working at an inhuman pace.

The fact that there’s a low probability that an AI will be able to do your job doesn’t change the fact that there’s a high probability that an AI salesman will convince your boss to fire you and replace you with an AI that can’t do your job.

Never forget that you aren’t the target for AI hype — investors are…If you drive 101 of 280 past (SFO) or San Jose (Airport) , you’ll pass gigantic electronic billboards, pumping out ten of thousands of ANSI lumens that glow even at high noon, seen by thousands of commuters but there to pitch only a couple dozen VCs and executives at major firms.

If you want to puncture the AI bubble, you should train your fire on the applications that are used to justify the massive investment in data centers and training.

The workers who are dead center in the crosshairs of AI bosses are programmers. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple — over and over,  we hear announcements from tech bosses about how many of their coders they plan to fire once the AI works, or (even more ominously) how many coders they’ve already fired because AI works so well.

The reason tech workers are able to command all these on-the-job goodies is down to an accident of history: when computers were absorbed into every kind of industrial and personal activity, the supply of trained coders was nowhere near high enough to meet the demand for their obscure, hard-to-master skills.

This meant that coders could demand all kinds of concessions from their bosses because there were always high-paying jobs with gobs of perks going for anyone who knows how to turn out reliable code on deadline, and bosses could afford to meet those demands and still turn gigantic profits.

In 2018, Google workers by the tens of thousands, walked off the job, kicking off a series of confrontations that forced the company to abandon a censored search engine for the Chinese market, a $10 Billion  military project…The exec in charge of the military contract resigned…In the space of just a few months Google declared its first dividend, fired twelve thousand workers (including many of its most senior–and thus most mouthy–technical staff), and declared a $70 billion stock buyback, which would have paid those workers wages for the next twenty-seven years.

One Google engineer relates his experience with AI in the workplace: “I have been a software engineer at Google for several years. With the introduction of generative AI-based coding assistance tools, we are already seeing a decline in open-source  code quality (defined as ‘code churn’ how often a piece of code is written only to be deleted or fixed within a short time). I am also starting to see a downward trend of (a) new engineer’s readiness in doing this work, (b) engineers willingness to learn new things, and (c) engineers effort to put in serious thoughts in the work.”

For AI companies to make back the hundreds of billions, their investors have entrusted them with, they will have to displace a hell of a lot of high-waged labor. That’s displace, not augment. AI companies are selling the replacement of workers with chatbots, but chatbots just can’t do workers’ jobs. To sell hundreds of billions of dollars worth of AI, you need a killer demo.

During the drafting of this book (2026), an MIT study found that 95 percent of commercial AI deployments fail, with “no measurable impact on profit.” The news sparked a panicked sell-off of AI related stocks, though whether this is the pin that pricks the bubble remains to be seen.

Its essential that we never stop reminding people that the current, actually existing lucrative uses for AI are terrible and should be banned.

In 2025 builder.ai (once valued at more than $1 billion) collapsed…In reality, builder.ai was a secret employment agency, farming out the work of building its customer apps to eight hundred to one thousand low waged Indian programmers. Wags said the “GPT” in ChatGPT stands for “Gujarati People Typing”.

Tech bubbles are surprisingly easy to generate, thanks to something economists call “the Byzantine premium.” That’s the extra value that investors place on an asset that they don’t understand.

Every bubble is a transfer of wealth from savers to crooks. Every bubble is bad. We shouldn’t have bubbles…Regulators should intervene to prevent bubbles in the first place. ..Some bubbles pop and leave nothing behind. These are the pure fraud bubbles.

The crypto bubble keeps getting reinflated, not least because the literal president of the United States issued his own shitcoin…But eventually the crypto bubble will burst (again) (and permanently) and when it does what will be left?

The environmental costs of the “compute” is off the charts. Even if you stipulate that the world will benefit from having some giant “advanced” AI tools, there’s no rational case for endangering the planet and the lives of millions of people to make several redundant AI tools that are functionally indistinguishable, with each consuming so much energy that they wipe a substantial share of the gains made from solarization and the broader switch to renewables.

Remember: seven giant AI companies account for 35% of the U.S. stock market. Amputating 35% of the market is going to destroy a ton of innocent bystanders, including people whose retirement savings are invested in index funds, considered the safest of all safe bets. We’re talking about a crash that will put 2008 in the shade and meet or exceed the pandemic selloff.

What’s more, that AI center is literally incinerating million dollar GPUs all the time and these have be be constantly replaced.

You can’t give a third of the S&P 500’s value over to seven money losing AI companies that energetically pass the same $100 Billion IOU around and around without creating the conditions for a prolonged, brutal global crash.

Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd., doing business as DeepSeek, is a Chinese artificial intelligence company that develops large language models. Based in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, DeepSeek is owned and funded by High-Flyer, a Chinese hedge fund.

The release of Deepseek in 2025 sent shock waves through AI investors. Deepseek laid bare the incredible laziness of the giant U.S. AI companies, who solved all their scaling issues by throwing money at their problems rather than by applying their ingenuity to them. Deepseek’s debut sent a cold chill up the spine of every investor in a big U.S. AI company. If their $100 billion models can be bested by a model that cost a reported $6 million to create and can run on commodity hardware, what future do these top-heavy AIs have?

But they (AI companies) haven’t invented an intelligent being. They haven’t set in motion the tools to conjure up a new god or demon. They haven’t even invented a tool that can do your job for you.

 

Is Big Tech a Bubble?

Muskism; A Guide for the Perplexed, Quinn Slobodian & Ben Tarnoff, 2026

His (Musk’s) communication style had always been proleptic (refers to something that is anticipatory, happens before its expected time, or treats a future event as if it has already occurred. ) The logic of financial fabulism (a contemporary literary genre that weaves fantastical, mythic, or surreal elements into otherwise realistic everyday settings. It blurs the line between reality and the impossible, treating magical occurrences as mundane to explore profound human themes) treated imagined futures as already underway, allowing speculative claims to generate market effects before the underlying technology had matured. “Musk’s success is sustained by predictions of a technological sublime that’s only ever another decade away.”

On twitter, however, such predictions could produce financial effects instantaneously. In 2018, Must tweeted, “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.” The number was a weed joke, but investors took him seriously: Tesla stock jumped 11 percent…In 2020, he posted “stock price too high imo” and Tesla dropped as much as 12 percent. In January 2021, he added “#bitcoin” to his Twitter bio and the cryptocurrency jumped 20 percent within an hour. This was attention alchemy at work. As journalist Marco D’Eramo observed, Musk’s followers were his “real capital”.

The most important site of cyborg symbiosis (concept heralds a future where biological intelligence and artificial intelligence converge, potentially mirroring the cooperative success stories found in nature.)  was social media. “Facebook and Twitter and Instagram and all these social networks — they’re giant cybernetic collectives,” Musk told the podcaster Joe Rogan ins 2018. They didn’t just let people collectivize their thoughts but, more importantly, their feelings. The “success of these online systems,” Musk argued, is a function of how much limbic resonance (a neurobiological concept describing the capacity for deep emotional and physiological attunement between two or more people) they’re able to achieve with people.” Virality was driven by emotion. “The more limbic resonance, the more engagement.”

What made these collectives cybernetic was the fact they included computers as well as humans. And these computers were, in fact, learning from the humans. AI systems based on neural networks are trained to perform a particular task by finding patterns in large quantities of data. On the platforms, users supplied this data through their activity. “We’re all collectively programming the AI,” Musk explained.

Gradually, this process would result in smarter and smarter AI. “The percentage of intelligence that is not human is increasing, and eventually we will represent a very small percentage of intelligence,” said Musk. The ultimate legacy of the cybernetic collectives of social media would be humanity training its replacement. In a computer, a bootloader is a special program that helps initialize the system. Humanity, Musk told Rogan, was becoming “the biological bootloader of AI.”

But there was an interesting wrinkle to this theory. If our online interactions were fueled more by emotion than reason, then the AI systems that we were collectively programming would reflect that. The AI that learned from observing our behavior in the cybernetic collective would become “our id writ large,” Musk said. This was a view of advanced AI not merely as “superintelligence” but as an algorithmic embodiment of combined impulses and instincts.

One implication was that social media had immense importance for the future of the human race. If social media were the primary site of cyborg symbiosis, then a platform like Twitter was more than a place to crack jokes, troll rivals, or pump crypto and stocks. It was a place where the perils of superintelligence could be neutralized by dissolving ourselves into data. If we didn’t become AI, AI would eliminate us.

SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are all expected to make their stock market debut with hefty valuations, as investors are eager to get in on the companies at the heart of the AI boom that have previously been locked up in private markets
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Wired; Public backlash against AI is escalating rapidly, driven by widespread anxiety over job displacement, surging utility costs from massive data centers, and ethical concerns regarding copyright and disinformation. This growing distrust has sparked grassroots protests, lawsuits, and an alarming spike in targeted, anti-tech extremism across the United States.

Is Big Tech a Bubble? Goldman Sachs;

  • The AI Capex Loophole: Critics argue that Big Tech is funding their own “circular revenue”. Giant tech firms invest billions into AI startups, which then use that exact funding to rent cloud infrastructure from those same tech giants.
  • Unsustainable Spending: Companies are heavily sacrificing cash flows and taking on massive debt to fund data centers and AI hardware. Some analysts from major banks warn that this mirrors the telecom overspending of the dot-com era.
  • Historical Concentration: A handful of mega-cap tech stocks now make up an unprecedented share of indices like the S&P 500, leaving the broader market vulnerable to any industry pullback.

Leonard Leo, Opus Dei, John Roberts, and the Most Dangerous Supreme Court

Without Precedent: How Chief Justice Roberts and his Accomplices Rewrote the Constitution and Dismantled Our Rights, Lisa Graves 2025

SUPREME COURT CORRUPTION AND PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY

Through action and inaction, Roberts has also allowed a culture of corruption to run rampant. For more than a decade, he has worked to stall congressional efforts to require an enforceable code of conduct for the Supreme Court, even though every other judge in the nation is subject to such rules…Roberts stood silent as Thomas sat on the case involving Donald Trump’s immunity claims in a criminal case about Trump’s efforts to subvert the 2020 presidential election, even though Thomas’s wife, Ginni Thomas, actively sought to stop the count and even to secure fake electors. Roberts adopted the same do-nothing approach toward Samuel Alito, despite evidence that flags tied to the Jan 6 insurrection were flown over his homes. Why? Roberts needed their votes in order to accomplish his most reactionary agenda to date and to cement the most unprecedented edict of all: to effectively pardon Trump and pave the way for his return to power, emboldened by kinglike immunity from prosecution for any of his “official acts” as president…John Roberts unprecedented decree was that Trump had committed no crimes, and could have committed no crimes , as long as he was acting in his official capacity as president. The chief justice’s declaration that Trump’s speech and actions in connection to his so-called official acts could not be used as evidence also interfered with other indictments and potentially his conviction in one of the other cases… This was, essentially, a judicial coup.

This situation–where ethically compromised justices were making critical decisions about the election of the president–harkens back to Bush v. Gore. In 2000, Clarence Thomas refused to recuse himself from the Bush v. Gore case despite a very serious conflict of interest involving, once again, his spouse. Rather than recusing himself, Thomas proceeded to cast the decisive vote in the Court’s 5-4 decision to stop the recount in Florida, thereby making George W. Bush president. As part of her job at the Heritage Foundation, Ginni Thomas helped lead the screening and recruiting of appointees for a future Bush administration…After Clarence Thomas failed to recuse himself, the Heritage Foundation promoted Ginni to director of executive branch relations, working directly with the Bush administration..She received nearly $1 in compensation over the next seven years.

John Roberts is presiding over the most corrupt Supreme Court in American history, and he is doing it in order to use the judiciary to entrench Republican power and roll back legal precedents that secured rights that he dislikes. Despite his superficial geniality, Roberts may go down as the worst chief justice in US history, presiding over the destruction of the law and the decimation of the Constitution.

Citizens United v. FEC 

Devastatingly, Roberts has systematically altered the very structure of our democracy by sabotaging voting rights and permitting illegitimate and undemocratic electoral maps that all but eliminated incentives to seek compromise, fueling extremism and division. But Roberts masterstroke was alchemy: turning gold into speech by judicially rewriting the First Amendment to allow mountains of gold in the form of dark money to distort our elections. The result in that case, called Citizens United v. FEC (2010), was orchestrated by the Roberts Court, which ordered an out-of-season oral argument on new questions to clear the decks for a surge in secret cash for the 2010 midterms–just in time to try to rein in America’s first Black president, Barack Obama. That tsunami of cash has been deployed to distort the ensuing elections, epitomized by the actions of the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, who spent $288 million to procure the presidency for Donald Trump (and an unelected copresidency for a while) in 2024.

OPUS DEI AND LEONARD LEO

A lot of the money used to rewrite the Constitution through the capture of the Court came from a small number of people–mostly white men–wielding their wealth to limit other people’s rights, especially women’s rights and voting rights, but not just those. To be clear, the Roberts Court does not stand alone in the endeavor to limit these rights: Its sits at the apex of a complex infrastructure of nonprofit groups and for-profit firms seeking to use the Court and protect it from critics. Leonard Leo’s role in building this infrastructure cannot be overestimated. It would not be unreasonable to assert that he is the individual most singularly responsible for reversing American’s reproductive freedoms and other rights through the Roberts Court. Of course, none of this would be possible without generous funding from billionaire zealots.

By 2001, Newsweek was reporting that Justices Scalia and Thomas were reputed to be part of Opus Dei, a secretive ultraconservative Catholic sect, although they could also have been  unofficial collaborators. That article also reported that Scalia’s wife, Maureen, had attended multiple Opus Dei “spiritual functions”…Opus Dei was created as a special prelature of the Catholic Church by Joes-maria Escriva, a priest with close ties to Spain’s Fascist dictator, Francisco Franco. Journalist Gareth Gore recently noted that most Opus Dei members in the United States live in or near Washington D.C., and no government since Franco’s has included as many Opus Dei members or collaborators as the first Trump administration. Two of Leo’s closest allies in the dark-money financial engine that has captured the court, Neil and Ann Corkery, have been part of Opus Dei. Leo also funds the Opus Dei headquarters in DC, the Catholic Information Center, and has received its highest award…by 2006, the Court had its first Catholic majority in US history: Alito plus Roberts, Thomas, Scalia, and Anthony Kennedy.

Attack Philanthropy: Right-Wing Billionaire Fueled Climate Denial & Conservative Judges, Schools

ProPublica reported that in September 2020 (Barre) Seid sold one of his companies and created a massive trust with Leo as Trustee. When the transaction details were settled, Leo stood at the helm of a $1.6 billion trust, one of the biggest gifts of its kind in US history.

No Supreme Court majority in American history has ever been constructed the way the Roberts Court has–with the help of big, dark secret money.

In 2024, Leo made public a letter he had sent to numerous right-wing groups explaining that his focus is on “funding to operationalize or weaponize the conservative vision,” to “crush liberal dominance at the choke points of influence and power in our society.” Leo wasn’t writing just as a person who controls a billion-dollar trust fund, which he has used to help orchestrate the reversal of Roe and more. This is the man who helped handpick the majority of justices on the US Supreme Court.

OVERTURNING 1973 ROE V. WADE

Since John Roberts became the chief justice of the US Supreme Court, American women have been losing their liberty. Starting with the Gonzales v. Carhart (2007) decision through the Dobbs v. Jackson (2021) ruling and its aftermath, the Roberts court has made it increasingly difficult for American women to get the medical care they need, to follow their doctor’s advice to protect their health when they are pregnant and confronted with a heart-wrenching diagnosis like cancer that needs treatment or where a severe fetal abnormality is detected. Women are literally dying because John Roberts agreed that states can restrict access to abortion well before a fetus is viable.

MARRIAGE EQUALITY

…when the question of marriage equality was taken up by his court, in Obergefell v. Hodges, Roberts cited as authority sources built on biblical claims…For example, Roberts cites a book published by an Opus Dei-tied publisher and edited by Robbie George, which asserts that the movement for same-sex marriage has created a “crisis,” for marriage. It also treats Christianity as authority on the relationship between “husbands and wives” and “man and woman” where “the family (headed by the husband) ruled itself.” That essay, by law professor David Forte, which Roberts cites in his opinion, also  asserts that the Founding Fathers relied on marriage as the foundation of a “free republic,” “national morality,”, and “public virtue,” based on one letter by John Adams asserting that marriage was necessary to rein in “private passions,” whatever that means. This is one of the flimsiest readings to hang a ruling on that I have ever encountered in more than thirty-five years of reading Supreme Court opinions.

Rich and powerful people have always tried to rig the rules in their favor. Now they are trying to take America backward and control who we can be, who we can love, and how we can care for our bodies, our families, and our world. They are putting the weight of their wealth on the scales of justice to diminish other people’s freedoms. The billionaires who helped capture the Supreme court have a guaranteed freedom to exercise their religion in America, just as all Americans have the freedom to worship or not, as they choose. But the billionaire-backed effort to use the US Supreme Court to impose those views as law on abortion and other social issues is profoundly at odds with our nation’s founding as a place of refuge from state-imposed religion.

VOTING RIGHTS

Roberts waited until three days after Obama was reelected in 2012 to accept another case on the constitutionality of the Voting Rights  Act, a case out of the Deep South known as Shelby County v. Holder. It was brought by Shelby County in Alabama, a state with a legacy of racial terror lynchings and a history of vote dilution efforts…That was the vehicle Roberts handpicked to destroy the preclearance provisions of the Voting Rights act…Roberts reprised his theme that “things have changed in the South” in his judicial decree in Shelby County. Then he went about arrogantly disregarding congressional expertise and rejecting a mountain of factual findings in contradiction of this political agenda.

Supreme Court Justices, like all appellate judges, are expected to follow precedent and defer to the factual findings of the courts below them and to Congress. But in Shelby County Chief Justice Roberts did not behave like an appellate judge. Instead, he gave scant consideration to the detailed findings of Congress and to the arguments of the groups submitting amicus briefs in defense of the Voting Rights Act, including those that provided detailed evidence to support the extension of the law…Roberts produced the antidemocratic outcome he desired but that the majority of the people’s representatives overwhelmingly rejected. Roberts declared, despite congressional findings to the contrary, “The conditions that originally justified these measures…no longer characterize voting in the covered jurisdictions.”

Voting restrictions started going into effect immediately, within minutes of John Roberts announcing his decimation of the preclearance protections under the Voting Rights Act.

Attacking The SEC administrative agency and administrative law Judges

In Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy (2025), Roberts chose to pen that decision, striking down decades of administrative law practice to declare suddenly that Congress cannot assign the administration of civil penalties for securities fraud to the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) and that instead such cases must be tried in federal court. This dramatic change in the law will make it far more difficult and expensive for the SEC to enforce the rules on trading securities, rules that protect American investors.

Charles Koch and the Supreme Court attack on Unions and Environmental Protections

The Kochs appear throughout this book, particularly Charles Koch. (See Kochland) Charles is not religious but worked closely with Leonard Leo.

In the 2018 Janus v. AFSCME John Roberts assigned the opinion to Sam Alito, who asserted that the fair-share rule created a “windfall” for unions.  Alito’s opinion, which Roberts joined, allows workers like Janus to be free riders who get the benefits and wages negotiated by unions without paying any fees–that’s the real windfall…the Roberts Court’s majority were weaponizing the First Amendment to undo precedents that the new majority disliked; they were reversing the law in Abood (1977) based not on any material change in the law or circumstances but just because John Roberts had the majority to do it. The decision also gave Charles Koch and his family a major victory in their multigenerational attack on unions.
In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, (2021) John Roberts delivered another blow to union organizing with his own words. Writing for the 6-3 Republican majority in that case, Roberts struck down a forty-six year old law that allowed union organizers a “right of access” to an agricultural employer’s property to protect agricultural workers’ right  to freedom of association in order to organize. Roberts asserted that the right  to organize in the farm fields constituted a “taking” under the Fifth Amendment.

In West Virginia v. EPA (2022), Roberts dealt a devastating blow to the power of the EPA. Roberts articulated the totally invented so-called major questions doctrine, which appears nowhere in the Constitution and had never appeared in any prior cases. The judicial invention asserts that federal agencies cannot use existing statutes to regulate on an issue the the Court deems to be a “major question” that Congress should first pass specific legislation to address. Under that “doctrine”, Roberts and his fellow Republican appointees declared that the EPA did not have the authority to regulate carbon by setting targets for utility companies to expand reliance on renewables, even though the EPA has authority under to statute to regulate carbon and other pollutants.

On its face Loper Bright (2024) is about sea captains opposing a regulation designed to protect wild fish in marine habitats from overfishing, but the  case was about much more than marine life. It was about advancing the destructive legal agenda of one of the the richest men in the world, whose enormous wealth comes from extractive industries. The case transcended Koch’s individual pecuniary interests, however, and was designed to make it easier for other billionaires and corporations to assail an array of federal regulations across countless industries. A close examination of the Loper Bright litigation reveals how it was orchestrated to secure a pro-Koch ruling by a Supreme Court with a newly constituted majority with judges Koch helped get confirmed. (Koch got) the reversal of the legal precedent set in Chevron v. NRDC (1984) …that required federal courts to defer to interpretations by federal agencies of statutory language when Congress did not specify the meaning of a particular word or term and the agency’s interpretation was a reasonable policy choice…Over the course of forty years the Chevron case was cited more than 15,000 times by the courts and provided some stability to the setting of federal rules…By 2024 federal judges no longer needed to defer to reasonable policy choices by experts at federal agencies in cases of broad statutory authorization. Now federal judges–which include more than 200 Trump appointees–can substitute their beliefs and slants for those of government scientists and other substantive experts employed by  the public. The Roberts Court has opened up a free-for-all for hostile federal judges to assert that they know more about air pollution than the experts at the EPA… or that they know better than the FDA about approving drugs like abortion medicine…This is a signature outcome long sought by Koch, Leo, and their comrades…It was about power.

For a look at how the Justice Department and FBI failed to bring Donald Trump to trial and justice for his many crimes and the role of the Federal courts in preventing these trials see Injustice: How Politics and Fear Vanquished America’s Justice Department, by Carol Leonnig , Aaron C. Davis 2025

 

 

 

Wealth and Income Inequality and the Great Recession

The Price of Inequality; How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future; Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2012

See Thomas Piketty On Redistribution of Wealth and Participatory Socialism

See these other accounts of the Subprime Mortgage banking disaster of 2008  that led to the Great Recession .

The most important role of government, however, is setting the basic rules of the game, through laws such as those that encourage or discourage unionization, corporate governance laws that determine the discretion of management, and competition laws that should limit the extent of monopoly rents. As we have already noted, almost every law has distributive consequences, with some groups benefiting, typically at the expense of others.

Indeed, even the IMF (the International Monetary Fund, the international agency responsible for ensuring global financial stability) has now recognized the dangers of unencumbered and excessive financial integration: a problem in one country can rapidly spread to another. In fact, fears of contagion have motivated bailouts of banks in the magnitude of tens and hundreds of billions of dollars. The response to contagious disease is “quarantine,” and finally in the spring of 2011, the IMF recognized the desirability of the analogous response in the financial markets. This takes the form of capital controls, or limiting the volatile movement of capital across borders, especially during a crisis.

Politics–and in particular how politics shapes the laws governing corporations–is a major determinant of the fraction of a corporation’s revenues that its top executives take for themselves. U.S. laws provide them considerable discretion. This meant that when social mores changed in ways that made large disparities in compensation more acceptable, executives in the United States could enrich themselves at the expense of workers or shareholders more easily than could executives in other countries.

(Japan in 2010) paid their chief executives an average of $580,000 in salary and other compensation…about 16 times more than the typical Japanese worker ($36,000). Average CEO pay at the 3,000 largest U.S. companies is $3.5 million, including stock options and bonuses…CEO pay of major U.S. corporations (is) some 263 times that of the income of the average worker ($13,300).

It used to be that when the economy went into recession, employers, wanting to maintain the loyalty of their workers and concerned about their well-being, would keep as many as they could on their payroll. The result was that labor productivity went down, and the share of wages went up. Profits bore the brunt of the downturn. Wage shares would then fall after the end of the recession. But in this (2008 and the previous 2001) recession, the pattern changed, the wage share declined in the recession, as well as in the ensuing years. Firms prided themselves on their ruthlessness–cutting out so many workers that productivity actually increased.

The irony is that just as markets started delivering more unequal outcomes, tax policy asked less of the top. The top marginal tax rate was lowered from 70 percent under Carter to 28 percent under Reagan; it went up to 39.6 percent under Clinton and down finally to 35 percent under George W Bush.

…One of the reasons that the top has done so well is rent seeking–which entails seizing a larger share of the the pie and, in doing so, making the size of the pie smaller than it otherwise would be…Widely unequal societies do not function efficiently, and their economies are neither stable nor sustainable in the long run. When one interest group holds too much power, it succeeds in getting policies that benefit itself, rather than policies that would benefit society as a whole. When the wealthiest use their political power to benefit excessively the corporations they control, much-needed revenues are diverted into the pockets of a few instead of benefiting society at large.

Since the time of the great British economist John Maynard Keynes, governments have understood that when there is a shortfall of demand–when unemployment is high–they need to take action to increase either public or private spending. The 1 percent has worked hard to restrain government spending…(Substituting large tax cuts for the wealthy didn’t work).

There is a second way that unbalanced politics driven by extremes of inequality leads to instability: deregulation. Deregulation has played a central part in the instability that we, and many other countries, have experienced. Giving corporations, and especially the financial sector, free rein was in the shortsighted interest of the wealthy; they used their political weight, and their power to shape ideas, to push deregulation, first in airlines and other areas of transportation, then in television, and finally, and most dangerously, in finance.

In the aftermath of the Great Depression, an event preceded by similar excesses, the country enacted strong financial regulations, including the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. These laws, effectively enforced, served the county well: in the decades following passage, the economy was spared the kind of financial crisis that had repeatedly plagued this country (and others). With the dismantling of these regulations in 1999 (Clinton), the excesses returned with even greater force: bankers quickly put to use advances in technology, finance, and economics. The innovations offered ways to increase leverage that circumvented the regulations that remained and that the regulators didn’t fully understand, new ways of engaging in predatory lending, and new ways to deceived unwary credit card users.

The losses from the under utilization of resources associated with the Great Recession and other economic downturns are enormous. Indeed, the sheer waste of resources brought on by this crisis caused by the private sector–a shortfall of trillions of dollars between what the economy could have produce and what it has produced–is greater than the waste of any democratic government ever.

For several decades America has suffered from under investment in infrastructure, basic research, and education at all levels. Further cutbacks in these areas lie ahead, given the commitment by both parties to bringing down the deficit and the refusal of the House of Representatives to raise taxes. The cuts come despite evidence that the boost these investments give to the economy far exceeds the average return in the private sector, and is certainly higher than the cost of funds to the government. Indeed, the boom years of the 1990s were buoyed by innovations made in previous decades that finally took their place in our economy. But the well from which the private sector can draw–for the next generation of transformational investments–is drying up. Applied innovations depend on basic research, and we simply haven’t been doing enough of it.

The financial sector succeeded in making student loans non-dischargeable in bankruptcy, which meant that the lenders had little incentive to see to it that the schools for the which the students were borrowing money were actually providing them with an education that would enhance their income. Meanwhile, private for-profit schools with richly compensated executives have defeated attempts to impose high standards that would make schools that exploit the poor and ill informed-by taking their money and not providing them with an education that enables them to get jobs to repay the loans–ineligible for loans.

Rent seeking distorts our economy in many ways–not the least of which is the misallocation of the country’s most valuable resource: its talent. It used to be that bright young people were attracted to a variety of professions–some to serve others, as in medicine or teaching or public service; some to expanding the frontiers of knowledge.  Some always went into business, but in the years before the (Great Recession) crisis an increasingly large fraction of the country’s best minds chose finance. And with so many talented young people in finance, it’s not surprising that there would be innovation in that sector. But many of these “financial innovations” were designed to circumvent regulations, and actually lowered long-run economic performance. These financial innovations do not compare with real innovations like the transistor or the laser that increased our standard of living.

Someday, perhaps soon, we too will see how globalization as currently managed promotes neither global efficiency nor equity; even more importantly, its puts our democracy in peril. Another world is possible: there are alternative ways of managing globalization that are better for both our economy and our democracy; but they do not entail unfettered globalization. We have learned the lessons of unfettered markets for our economy and how to temper capitalism so that it serves the majority of citizens, not a tiny, powerful fraction. So too, we can temper globalization; indeed, we must if we want to preserve our democracy, prevent our rampant inequality from growing worse, and maintain our influence around the world.

 

 

 

A just Transition from neoliberal capitalism to progressive capitalism

The Road to Freedom; Economics and the Good Society, Joseph E Stiglitz, 2024

From FDR’s “Four Freedoms Speech” 1941

The first is freedom of speech, and expression — everywhere in the world. The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way — everywhere in the world…freedom from want — which, translated into world terms, means economic understandings, which will secure to every nation a healthy peacetime life for its inhabitants — everywhere in the world…freedom from fear — which translated into world terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a thorough fashion that no nation will be in a position to commit and act of physical aggression against any neighbor — anywhere in the world.

From Reagan to Clinton, presidential administrations expanded the freedom of the banks. Financial deregulation and liberalization meant freeing the banks to do as they pleased…The very word “liberalization” connoted “freeing”. When the 2008 financial crisis hit, we discovered the cost. Many Americans lost their freedom from fear and want as the very real prospect grew that millions of workers and retirees would lose their jobs and homes. We as a society lost our freedom — we had no choice but to spend taxpayers’ money to bail out the banks.

John Maynard Keynes and FDR saw an alternative way forward from classical economics. Updated for the marked changes in the economy and our understanding of the past three-quarters of a century, their vision still stands as an alternative to the neoclassical and neoliberal economics that followed and to the new Right that is emerging. The Keynes and FDR approach was a tempered capitalism with government playing a key but limited role, ensuring stability, efficiency, and equity — or at least more than is provided by unfettered capitalism. They laid the groundwork for a twenty-first-century progressive capitalism that supports meaningful human freedom.

Adam Smith 1776 The Wealth of Nations :

The interest of [businessmen] is always in some respects different from, and even opposite to, that of the public…The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order…ought never to be adopted, till having having been long and carefully examined. with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men…who have generally an interest to deceive and even oppress the public.

If you are born into the wrong environment, those assets mean nothing. They yield the returns they do only because of the socioeconomic environment as to our own skills and effort. There is full justification, then, for imposing high taxes on high income even in a perfectly competitive economy in which wealth is garnered in ways that have full moral legitimacy.

Likewise, the moral claim against progressive taxes is slim if high incomes arise out of luck or inheritance–and even more so if they are made possible through exploitation or because the rules that generate or allow such income have been shaped by access to political power.

Donald Trump illustrates what happens when parents and teachers fail, and an individual does not become socialized. When norms, peer pressure, and tradition worked normally, we didn’t need strong laws to define what a president could ethically do. Almost every president acted within the constraints. But Trump, with his brazenness, may force us to define the presidential limits more precisely by putting them within laws and regulations.

In the centuries since the Enlightenment, we’ve developed institutions that do a remarkable job of assessing the truth–independent courts, research and educational institutions, and professional associations. There was a widespread consensus behind these institutions until the naysayers in the modern Republican Party and their counterparts around the world arrived on the scene. Unless we restore trust in our truth-ascertaining and verification institutions, it will be hard to have a sustained, well-functioning society or a productive economy.

Financial Times article in 2020 on Facebook;

In short, without full transparency, with a mechanism for holding participants to account, without equal ability to transmit and receive information, and with unrelenting intimidation, there is no free marketplace of ideas. One of the major insights of modern economics is that private and social incentives are often not well-aligned. If those who want to spread misinformation are willing to pay more than those who want to counter it, and if lack of transparency is more profitable than transparency [if we simply say] “so be it,” we won’t get a well-functioning marketplace of ideas.

Online platforms have not only exacerbated societal fragmentation; they have also increased the problem of the rapid, viral spread of mis- and disinformation. Virality means that information can spread quickly, more quickly than “antidotes” to the misinformation can be designed. The lack of transparency in who gets what messages have meant that the antidotes cannot be effectively developed and delivered in the relevant time span, if at all.

Social media companies have enabled the incitement of violence and the spread of hate speech and induced antisocial behavior. Their claim that they are neutral is obviously false.

Should we allow greenhouse gas emission to go unfettered? How should we manage a public health crisis like a pandemic? In that case, the transmission of scientifically false information — especially targeted mis- and disinformation that goes viral — can have dangerous and destructive consequences.

Feudalism was marked by a high concentration of power and wealth, low economic growth and slow social progress. Communism succeeded in generating greater security and more equality in material goods but failed on other counts, including low economic growth, an absence of freedom in all dimensions; a concentration of power, and a greater inequality of standards of living than Communist rulers would admit.

Milton Friedman Friedrich Hayek

Neoliberalism, the dominant economic system in the West over the past forty years, is increasingly viewed as an economic failure because it brought slower growth and more inequality than in earlier decades…It increased societal polarization; created selfish, materialistic, and often dishonest citizens, and contributed to a growing lack of trust.

It is intuitively clear to me that a society marked by greater equality (other things being equal) is better than one marked by huge disparities; that cooperation and tolerance is fundamentally better than greed, selfishness, and intolerance. The extreme versions of the latter that have appeared on the American scene in recent decades are truly loathsome.

Similarly, we now recognize the dangers of climate change, but if governments take action to restrict fossil fuels, under existing investment agreements, they might have to pay out as much as $340 billion to compensate the companies for not destroying the planet.

Our economic system has to be decentralized, with a multiplicity of economic units–many enterprises and other entities (of different kinds) making decisions about what to do and how to do it. The world is too complex to be centrally planned…Any well functioning economy or society requires a mix of types of institutions, not only public and private for profit, but also cooperatives, private not for profit, and so on. And the governmental institutions need to operate at multiple levels, including local, state or provincial, national and global. These institutions need to exert checks and balances on each other and the overall governance structure must limit power and its abuse. I want to emphasize that there must be large parts of the economy that are not and cannot be driven by profits. These include much of the health, education, and care sectors, in which the the narrow pursuit of profits often leads to perverse results. The private prison system has failed its core mission of rehabilitating prisoners.

…we are not born fully formed; we are shaped by our parents, our schools, and the environment surrounding us–including the economic, political, and social system in which we are embedded…cooperative institutions may spur more cooperative behavior. The neoliberal system that we’ve had for the past half century has failed on its own terms by not producing the shared prosperity it promised, but more disturbingly, it also bred more selfish and materialistic people who are less honest and trustworthy. What kind of a world is it in which individuals routinely make money by taking advantage of others and don’t even feel guilty?

Progressive capitalism’s deep aspiration is to construct a society in which there is more empathy, more caring, more creativity, and healthy striving, with individuals who are less selfish and more honest–and these attributes will lead to a better-functioning economy and society.

I believe a large part of the answer is related to two problems of neoliberalism that I’ve called attention to: the growing income and wealth divide that marks twentieth and twenty-first century neoliberal capitalism and the polarization caused by the media. Making matters worse is that current rules allow the rich and elites to have a disproportionate voice in shaping both the policies and societal narratives. All of which leads to an enhanced sense by those who are not wealthy that the system is rigged and unfair, which makes it all the more difficult to heal divisions.

As income inequalities grow, people wind up living in different worlds and don’t interact. There is a large body of evidence showing that economic segregation is growing and has consequences, for instance, on how each side thinks and feels about the other. The poorest members of society see the world as stacked against them and give up on their aspirations; the wealthiest develop a sense of entitlement, and their wealth helps to ensure that the system is rigged. But these individual opinions about the economic divide only increase the societal divide.

Not only are neoliberal economies inefficient, but neoliberalism as an economic system is not sustainable. There are many reasons to believe that a neoliberal market economy is prone to devour itself. A market economy runs on trust. Adam Smith emphasized the importance of trust, recognizing that society couldn’t survive if people brazenly followed their own self interest rather than good codes of conduct.

The regard to those general rules of conduct, is what is properly called a sense of duty, a principle of the greatest consequence to human life, and the only principle by which the bulk of mankind are capable of directing their actions… Upon the tolerable observance of these duties, depends the very existence of human society, which would crumble into nothing if mankind were not generally impressed with a reverence for those important rules of conduct.

A “businessman” like Donald Trump can flourish for years, even decades, taking advantage of others. If Trump were the norm rather than the exception, commerce and industry would grind to a halt.

 

A Spangle WA Pioneering Family Farming History

600 Acre Farm in Spangle Washington 1880s to today

William Scott Hall on front porch of farm house 1903

William Scott Hall (1815-1904)  genealogical records in Maine show him to be a forth generation Hall whose first ancestors arriving in America from England in 1622, 1633, and 1635. The Hall family for these generations made their living as coastal traders, plying trade from Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Maine and points south. But railroads were being introduced into Maine with a main line completed in 1855 so William Scott saw the end of an era and his doomed future in coastal trading.

In 1855, a railroad was completed across the Isthmus of Panama and William Scott had a practical way to move his young family to California by way of Panama. We don’t know if the impending American Civil War influenced William Scott’s decision but in 1858 he moved his family, including his 14 year old  daughter, Patience Melissa Hall, via boat and the Panama Railroad, to Santa Clara County California. William Scott learned a new trade, wheelwright, and became proficient and much sought after for his skills at making wagon and machine wheels. William Scott’s last son, Horace E. Hall  was born in Santa Clara County in 1864 when Horace’s sister Patience was 20 years old.

The family was interested in homesteading and  awaited the right time and place to participate. Railroads again played a role in timing and location. The Northern Pacific Railroad (NPR) was completed to Spokane in 1881, and Melissa Hall’s husband William Thomas Elledge was able to travel from Santa Clara County CA to Spokane WA by train. The route took him to Utah to join the NPR. The Northern Pacific Railroad had been given the right to build a spur route from Spokane south to Lewiston, Idaho and land on each side of the route were granted to the NPR to build this spur through the heart of the Palouse rolling hill farm land. 

The Indian wars in the Palouse ended in 1858 with the hanging of seven Indians about four miles from the family farm.

This is the story of 600 acres of Palouse farmland in the Spangle WA township, homesteaded by William Scott, his children and grandchildren and what became of this land over the next century. Lets start with the legal descriptions of this 600 acres.

SE ¼ Section 3 Township 22 North Range 43 (160 acres) Horace Hall

SW ¼ Section 3 Township 22 North Range 43 (160 acres) Alice Lucas Elledge

W ½ of the NE ¼; and NE ¼ of the NE ¼ Section 10 Township 22 North Range 43 (120 acres) Patience Melissa Hall Elledge

NW ¼ of Section 11 Township 22 North Range 43 (160 acres) W T Elledge, W. Grant, and George S Elledge

The legal farm land descriptions are used on all farm land deeds to identify the parcel being deeded. Spokane County decided not make these legal descriptions searchable when they moved their records online. Early documents often don’t include numbers and deeds were written longhand e.g. “southeast quarter section three township twenty two north range forty three”. As a result of this decision, the only way to search for Spokane County farm land records online is by granter and grantee so many documents for farm land property warranty deeds and quit claim deeds cannot be found using online searches. This includes documents pertaining to our 600 acres.

Current land ownership is available at the Spokane County SCOUT map  web site. One can move the map focus to Spangle township, enlarge the map, and click on each parcel to find its size, owner, and recent sales activity. Unfortunately, the SCOUT map shows tax parcel numbers and not legal descriptions which, I presume, would be too unwieldy for tax records. The SCOUT map allows us to find the current owners of the 600 acres and who is currently paying the property taxes on the parcel but one has to guess whether or not the highlighted parcel matches the desired legal land description.

Patience’s husband William Thomas Elledge (age 50),  Patience (age 37), and W T’s three sons, W G Elledge (age 12), George S Elledge (age 11), Edwin E Elledge (age 6) arrived in Spangle in 1881.

William T Elledge immediately bought NW ¼ of Section 11 Township 22 North Range 43 (160 acres) from the Northern Pacific Railroad for $416.

Railroad to W T Elledge NW ¼ S11 (160) 1881

William T Elledge died in 1886 at age 55 in Spangle leaving  Patience Melissa Hall Elledge the NW ¼ Section 11 160 acres.

William Scott’s wife Louisa Troke was born in St. George, New Brunswick Canada in 1826 and died in Santa Clara County CA on May 6, 1883. Their other children were adults at the time of her death. William Scott spent most of the rest of his life in Santa Clara County CA. Only a photo taken at the Hall farm in 1903 shows that he attended the birth of Horace’s first son Clarence and likely visited Patience and her three boys.

In 1883, William Scott bought NE ¼ of Section 11 Township 22 North Range 43 (160) Aug 1, 1883 from the Northern Pacific Railroad for $416. This land is not part of our 600 acre farm.He intended that this land would go to his son Horace (age 19) when he reached the age of majority.

Railroad to W S Hall NE ¼ S11 (160) 1883

William Scott deeded NE ¼ S11 to his son Horace E Hall on Feb 8, 1890.

W S Hall to Horace Hall NE ¼ S11 (160) 1890

Horace sold NE ¼ S11 on Feb 17, 1890 to the Spokane Nash party. This document is three pages and required Patience’s witness signature and a notary signature from Santa Clara CA. This hand written Quit Claim deed is extremely hard to decipher.

Horace to Nash Party NE ¼ S11 Feb 1890 Page 1

Horace to Nash party NE ¼ S11 Feb 1890 page 2 Patience certifying

Horace to Nash Party NE ¼ S11 Feb 1890 page 3 CA Notary page 3

This parcel NE ¼ of Section 11 Township 22 North Range 43 (160 acres) is currently owned by the Sievers Farm LLC.

Horace purchased SE ¼ Section 3 Township 22 Range 43 (160)  on Apr 14, 1890 for $2000 from a Spokane land speculator (who bought from Northern Pacific in 1889) . This is the Hall 160 acre parcel.

J ZEsinger to Horace E Hall NE ¼ S3 (160 acres) 1890

Washington State University was established as a land grant college in 1890 in Pullman WA in the Palouse.

P M to Grant George

Patience deeded for $1000, to W Grant Elledge and George S Elledge  the NW ¼ of Section 11 Township 22 North Range 43 (160 acres) Apr 24, 1902.

Grant to Russel S7 1902

Grant and George sold for $2,800, to the Russel party,  SW ¼ of Section 7 Township 22 Range 43 (160 acres) Oct 2, 1902. This parcel is crossed by the Cheney-Spangle Highway approx 1.5 miles southwest of Spangle.  Robert “Bob” Sievers purchased the 80 acre parcel 32071.9001 on Feb 9, 2020 for $271,400 or $3,392.50 an acre. This parcel appears on the SCOUT map to be the W ½ of the SW ¼ of Section 7 of the former Elledge property.  The Hall 155 acres, currently owned by Bob Sievers, would have an estimated value of $526,000 today.

P M Elledge Estate to Edwin E Elledge W ½ NE ¼ S11 (80) 1927

In 1927, after Patience’s death, her son, Edwin filed a warranty deed transferring the W ½ of the NE ¼ of Section 11 Township 22 North Range 43 from P M Elledge to Edwin E Elledge. This would have been 80 acres of the land William Scott purchased from NPR in 1883 and that Horace sold in 1890 after purchasing the Hall land in Section 3. This document doesn’t say that P M Elledge is dead, that the legal land description is wrong, that P M Elledge never owned this land, that the document claims this deed was originally signed in 1910. This document, that is still on file, is a fake.

Edwin to Grant S11 1937

Edwin filed a quitclaim deed to the NW ¼ of Section 11 Township 22 North Range 43 (160 acres) on Aug 2-, 1937 This document was signed in Bakersfield CA. Edwin was signatory to the deed from Patience to Grant in 1902, but Edwin must have  been making claims on this parcel as late as 1937. He had already filed a fake deed to the NE ¼ claiming falsely that Patience had deeded him this parcel in 1910.

Patience Hall Elledge bought the NE ¼ of the NE ¼ Section 10 Township 22 Range 43 (40 acres), probably around 1890, right across Keavy Road from her brother Horace’s land.  Grant built his farm buildings on this land but Patience retained ownership until her death. I can find no records of this purchase.

Patience Hall Elledge bought W ½ of the NE ¼ Section 10 Township 22 Range 43 (80 acres) from the Spokane County Poor Farm shown as owners of this parcel on the Township 22 map below sometime between 1905 and her death in 1926. I can find no records of this purchase.

I believe that Patience lived in the town of Spangle from the time her family first arrived from CA in 1881 until her death in Spangle in 1926 but visited her father and siblings  in Santa Clara County CA periodically. Grant retired shortly after her death and he and Alice may have moved into Patience’s house in Spangle.

Grant Alice Marriage 1900

In 1900 Patience’s oldest son William Grant Elledge (age 31) married Mary Alice Lucas (age 28) . Grant built a house and barn and dug a well on Patience’s land and lived there with Alice until he retired from farming.

Horace Ida Marriage 1902

Horace finished his house in 1900. Horace (age 38) married Ida Grünewald (age 23) in 1902 and my dad Clarence was born in 1903.

I think that Grant, George, and Horace farmed as a single family unit, sharing farm equipment, horses, and labor,  working whatever fields were needed. It is  possible that the neighboring Hollings and Rasmussens also shared equipment and labor in a cooperative fashion. This was particularly likely in the early days of stationary harvesters and steam tractors where crews of 20 or more were needed for the harvest. Clarence would have grown up in this environment and the photo below of him pulling a 1920s combine with a team of horse up a Palouse hill supports this. By the late 1930s a crew of three is all that is required to harvest a field as seen with Bob, Phil, and Clarence on 1935 tractor and combine.

Bob Phil and Clarence Harvesting in 1940s

Alice Lucas Elledge inherited SW ¼ Section 3 (160 acres) upon her father Joseph Lucas’s death in 1906.

Clarence Hall High School Graduation

Grant was 34 years older than his first cousin Clarence. Clarence began farming at the age of 19 or 20 after Horace died in 1922 and I believe that Grant and Alice retired to Patience’s Spangle house after her death in 1926. Grant would have been 57 years old in 1926, the same age as Horace when he died and farming is hard. When Grant retired, he arranged for Clarence to share crop the 440 acre Elledge and Lucas land.

Clarence Team Drawn Combine in the Palouse 1920s

Township 22 1905

By 1905, Patience has purchased NE ¼ of the NE ¼ Section 10  (40 acres). This parcel  is directly across Keavy Rd from her brother Horace’s parcel where Grant  built his farm buildings. Patience would purchase W ½ of the NE ¼ Section 10 (80 acres) from the Spokane County Poor Farm sometime after this map was drawn.

Jochim Sievers owns 320 acres according to this map. The Erna Paul Sievers Family Tree  will play a significant part in our family history. Jochim Sievers son Paul married Amanda Suksdorf and we see that the Suksdorf family are major land owners by 1905.

Township 22 1940s?

A Land ownership map in Township 22 (Spangle) was found in a Spokane Historical nomination of the 1900 George Clark barn prepared by Nona Hengen who lives on the property of the barn. In Sector 3 the map shows that Ida Hall has inherited Horace E Hall’s SE 1/4 after his death in 1922 (age 57), Alice Elledge owns the SW 1/4 of Section 3. Patience P M Elledge owns 120 acres in the NE 1/4 Section 10 and W G Elledge owns the NW 1/4 of Section 11. This map shows the ownership of the 600 acres when my father Clarence began farming. This map also shows some of the 1015 acres owned by Erna Sievers after her husband Paul Siever’s death in 1946 .

A farm estate in Spokane County, Washington, can be foreclosed upon if property taxes are not paid. Washington state law requires the county treasurer to initiate the foreclosure process on any real property for which a tax payment is three or more full years delinquent.”

A possible explanation for showing P M Elledge as owner of the parcel on this map is that someone regularly paid property taxes and that there were no other liens on the property.

In 1952 Ida Hall died; in 1953 Clarence Hall died; in 1955 Grant Elledge died, in 1956 Alice Elledge and Sarah Greenlee (Bertha’s mother) died. From the age of nine I  attended funerals.

Alice Estate to Maxine 709 795 Grant S11 80 acres Alice S3 40 acres 1957

In 1957 the Alice Elledge Estate deeded the SE ¼ of the SW ¼ of Section 3 (40 acres) and the E ½ of the W ¼ of Section 11 (80 acres) to Maxine Hubbard , then living in Lewiston Idaho, the only living descendant of the three Elledge brothers. Maxine was the daughter of Edwin E. Elledge.

The E ½ of the W ¼ of Section 11 W G Elledge Estate 80 acres were not deeded by Alice’s estate, nor was the W ½ of the NE ¼; and NE ¼ of the NE ¼ Section 10 Township 22 Range 43 P M Elledge Estate 120 acres. But someone continued to pay the property taxes on these parcels.

Alice Estate to E H Brewer 719-748 Lucas Alice S3 120 1957

Alice Estate to E H Brewer 719-750 Todd Alice S3 120 1957

Her estate sold 120 acres to Ed Brewer. I believe there are two deeds for this sale because the proceeds of the sale were divided between two sets of beneficiaries;  Lucas and Todd.

Hubbard Deed of Distribution

Maxine Hubbard died in 1984 and her son Richard Hubbard and daughter Gail H Callahan filed a deed of distribution in 1987, three years after Maxine Hubbard’s death, perhaps to avoid delinquent tax foreclosure. Exhibit A claims all the remaining Elledge land in Section 11 and Section 10 and 40 acres from Section 3; altogether 320 acres.

Hubbard Lis Pendens 1988

In 1988, Richard and Gail filed a Lis Pendens against the Estates of all the Elledges to secure title to the 320 acres. The Superior Court of Spokane County granted title to the Hubbards.

In 1988, 155 acres of Hall land and 120 acres of Alice Elledge land were owned by Paul “Bud” Sievers. All Bud’s land were inherited by his son Robert “Bob” Sievers in 2010. I believe Bud and/or Bob have been farming the 320 acre Elledge Land since 1981 when Ed H Brewer died.

Today the Elledge land is owned by the Sharley-Hubbard Living Trust. Richard Hubbard died in 2018 from injuries sustained in a mountain bike crash. Richard’s second wife Ann Sharley and Richard’s  sister Gail Callahan are the two remaining trustees of the living trust. They pay land taxes and I believe have an arrangement with Robert “Bob” Sievers to farm the 320 acres. The 600 acres are, I believe, once again farmed by one farmer.

There may never be an answer to the mystery of who was paying land taxes on the various Elledge Estate lands between 1926 and 1984 as various parcels became the estates of deceased owners without being deeded (or I can’t find any records of deeds). The final direct Elledge descendant, Maxine Elledge Hubbard died in 1984, so she remains the most likely to have been paying the taxes on all the estate parcels.  We know for certain that someone paid the property taxes on all Elledge parcels until 1984.

By sharp contrast, the history of the Horace – Ida – Clarence – Bertha Hall land SE ¼ Section 3 Township 22 Range 43 (160) is complete from Horace’s purchase in 1890 to his death in 1922, to Ida’s death in 1952, to Clarence’s death in 1953, to Bertha’s sale of 155 acres in 1972 and the creation of the farm buildings 4.68 acre parcel to Bertha’s sale of the farm building parcel in 1975. I found all these records.

Ida Hall discovered after Horace’s death that a large mortgage. had been taken out on the 160 acres to invest in a coal mine in British Columbia. The mine failed and Ida and Clarence spent years paying off the mortgage. Had it not been for this mortgage, Ida and Clarence might have been able to use land equity to acquire more farm land.

Grant farmed all 440 acres of Elledge land. Grant and Alice were living directly across Keevy Rd from the Horace and Ida Hall farm. When Grant retired to Spangle, he arranged for my dad Clarence (Grant’s first cousin) to farm the 440 acre Elledge land under a share crop agreement. This agreement was terminated in the fall of 1955 after the death of Grant by Alice, who claimed that she had a close relative who had married a Spangle farmer Edwin H Brewer. I finally unraveled her relationship with farmer Brewer. Alice’s husband Grant’s niece Maxine Elledge’s husband Ralph Wood Hubbard’s sister Mary Elizabeth Hubbard Brewer is the mother of Edwin Harrison Brewer. E H Brewer’s wife was Harriet Jane Ewing Brewer (1921 Spokane -2001), unrelated to Alice Lucas Elledge.

The traditional share arrangement for a grain crop like corn or wheat is one-third to the landowner and two-thirds to the tenant. Usually, the expenses paid, and crop received, are equal to the share — i.e. the landowner would pay one-third of the expenses and receive one-third of the crop.

Alice was upset that William E “Bob” (my oldest brother) had missed two consecutive state of the farm meetings in 1954 and 1955 and had planted spring wheat on his own initiative without Grant’s or Alice’s approval. If there was no written share crop agreement, Bob, who never intended to be a farmer, probably had no way of knowing the details of Clarence’s arrangement with Grant. Alice met with Bertha and Bob at the Farm and mentioned a family marriage to a local farmer, Edwin Harrison Brewer, and that she had decided to move the share crop to him.The disastrous result of Alice’s decision to terminate the share crop agreement was to destroy the economic viability of our 600 acre farm. It would not have been impossible in 1955 to profitably farm only 160 acres. And by this time, Clarence, Bob and Phil had borrowed heavily to purchase a new International TD9 track tractor and a new Massey Harris combine.

A written share crop agreement if it ever existed and the Horace mortgage are lost to history. It is even possible that the agreement between first cousins Clarence and Grant were not written down. Many such agreements are based on verbal contracts or “handshake deals,” especially when the parties have a long-standing relationship such a Grant had with both uncle Horace and cousin Clarence.

Spangle Landowning Widows in Order of Widowhood

Farm lands owned by married couples are inherited by the widow when the husband dies unless a binding will overrides the traditional legal practice. Here we study several Spangle widows, most of whom inherited farm land upon the death’s of their husbands,  and who themselves never became farmers. For the duration of their widowhood, often for decades, these widows became the final decision makers regarding their land.

Patience Melissa Hall Elledge widow 1886 – 1926 40 years William T Elledge

Patience moved from Maine to Santa Clara CA when she was 14 years old and again moved to Spangle in 1881 together with her husband, and her three sons. She was widowed in 1886 at the age of 42 in Spangle. George died in 1906, Grant became the Elledge farmer, and Edwin ran the Spangle Hardware. Patience sold her husband’s 160 acre parcel to her sons Grant and George in 1902 and purchased 120 acres of farm land that she controlled til her death in 1926.

Pearl Roberta Johnson Elledge widow 1906-1960 54 years George S Elledge

Pearl Elledge to Grant and Alice NW ¼ S11 E(80) 1952

Pearl was widowed at age 29 in 1906 when she acquired George’s W ½ NW ¼ S 11 (80 acres). In 1939 Pearl exchanged halves with W G Elledge and Alice giving Pearl  the E ½ (80 acres) .  In 1952 Pearl sold her E ½ NW ¼ S 11 (80 acres) to Grant and Alice. Pearl was an active buyer and seller of individual lots in the town of Spangle where she lived. And someone,  Pearl or Grant paid property tax on her land from 1906 until 1955. Alice’s estate did not deed this land to Maxine Hubbard in 1957.

Ida Grünewald Hall widow 1922-1952 30 years Horace E Hall

Clarence, Maye, Elmer

Ida Grünewald was 15 years younger than Horace when they married in 1902. My dad, Clarence, was born a year later in 1903. She had a second son Elmer in 1905 and a daughter Maye in 1906. Elmer was a mathematical prodigy but suffered epileptic fits. Elmer and Clarence were very close growing up. When Horace died unexpectedly in 1922 at age 57, Clarence had just graduated from High School. Ida believed strongly in education and wanted Clarence to go to WSU but now he would need to take over the farming. Ida came up with a plan to allow Clarence to attend WSU for one year and take only the courses that he would need for his farming duties. During that year he formed lifelong contacts in the WSU  extension service. I used to accompany dad on his annual visits to the extension service to learn the latest farming developments. During that WSU year, Elmer and Mae assisted Ida to keep the farm running. As a recognized prodigy, Ida knew Elmer needed to get a degree from WSU so she left Clarence and Mae to care for the farm while she became the cook at the Stevens dormitory on the WSU campus. She was an excellent German cook. She was able to have her own private room together with Elmer where she would be able to manage his occasional fits. Elmer graduated with a B.A. in mathematics. Elmer went on to earn an M.A  in mathematics somewhere in the east and began work at Westinghouse in Pittsburgh. Ida was told he was doing important work. He committed suicide in 1939 and Ida blamed Elmer’s wife for his death. I have not been able to find more details about Elmer’s life.

Mae helped Clarence on the farm and when Ida returned home from WSU Mae attended Cheney Normal School but did not like teaching. She worked at Weyerhauser in Spokane for 2 years then married and moved to San Francisco where she worked for the State of California for 33 years.

Ida and Tillie Retirement Home Spangle 2025When Clarence married Bertha in 1927, Ida moved with her widowed sister Matilda “Tillie” to a house on Main Street in Spangle. The house still exists much as I remember it although I am sure the outhouse is now replaced with an indoor toilet. She was a central member of the Spangle Community Church and raised money to purchase a bell for the Spangle Community Church and one for the Zephyr lodge built in 1902 and purchased for use as a church summer camp on Liberty Lake. She also bought a dinner bell for her home. Ida had thyroid surgery in her 60’s and never really recovered. She developed high blood pressure and had nephritis.

Mae Hall Bennett to Clarence Hall NW ¼ of NE ¼ S3 (40) 1953

When Ida died her will deeded 40 acres to Mae and Mae immediately deeded the land to Clarence before Clarence’s death in 1953.

Erna Jöns Sievers 1904-2000 widow 1946-2000 54 years Paul Sievers

Erna was raised in Spokane and graduated from Central High School. In 1929, at the age of 25 she became the second wife of Paul Sievers after Paul’s first wife Amanda Pauline Suksdorf 1896–1928 died. Amanda’s children include the twins Paul “Bud” and Pauline, born in 1922. The Suksdorfs still own significant farm land in Spangle. Paul and Erna had one son Harold “Sonny” born in 1931. Paul acquired more than 1000 acres of land and built a wooden grain elevator on the Watts farm during their marriage. Erna inherited the farm when Paul died in 1946 and proved to be a very able business woman, making all decisions regarding crops and market timing, while Sonny proved an excellent farmer and mechanic. She set up the LLC and built nine steel tanks for grain storage. Erna was my first employer.

Elise Edna Webb widow 1947-1964 17 years Edwin E Elledge

Elise was born in 1890 in Bakersfield CA and married Edwin in Seattle in 1909. She lived in Spangle for about 20 years when Edwin and she ran the Spangle Hardware store. They had a daughter Maxine and a son Richard who died in 1939. In 1940 she returned to Bakersfield CA. She died in Lewiston ID in 1964 where her daughter Maxine was living.

Bertha Greenlee Hall widow 1953-1984 31 years Clarence E Hall

Bertha Greenlee was born in 1902 to Aaron Greenlee (a Scottish name) and Sarah Garoutte Greenlee whose great grandfather was Michael Antoine Garoutte, a pirate and privateer in the early war for American Independence and a Lieutenant in the first American Continental Navy. Her family moved to a farm in Spangle in 1918 and Bertha thought it was the best house her family ever owned. She and her younger brother Clarence Milburn Greenlee 1904-1944 drove a horse drawn carriage to school every day, about five miles. Bertha used to joke they could churn cream into butter the ride was so rough. She graduated in 1922 and attended the Cheney Normal School to earn a teaching certificate. In 1924, she got her first teaching assignment for a one room school (grades 1-8) located on Latah Creak less than three miles from the Greenlee farm. The road descended from the farm’s Palouse plateau down a steep curving gravel road to the school. She rode a horse to school every day where there was a barn with hay for the horse. After school, when the horse reached the plateau it always broke into an uncontrollable gallop anxious to get home. The family had to open a gate when they saw her coming but once the horse crashed right through the gate.

Living at home, Bertha was able to save her salary and she purchased a new Ford Model T coup. The one room school was closed and her next assignment was in Wardner, ID near Kellogg, in 1925. Clarence drove his Model T Ford to court her.

Bertha married Clarence in 1927. They had four children William E “Bob” 1928, Clarence Philip “Phil” 1931, Janet Nadine 1934, and me, Dennis Ray 1943.

Bertha, Bob, Janet, Phil

Dad remodeled the farmhouse, digging a full basement, putting in central heating (coal) indoor bathroom and toilet and a walk in Refrigerator – Freezer. Mom had an incredible green thumb for vegetable and flower gardens. The family was almost self sufficient, growing almost all the food we needed. They sold excess cream and eggs to a Spokane coop and on those trips  could conveniently shop at Safeway for Yeast, flower, sugar, and other necessities. Bertha canned and froze vegetables and fruits for winter consumption. We had our own apples, but picked peaches, apricots, pears, and berries from specialty growers in the area.

Clarence died unexpectedly in 1953 at age 50. Both Bob and Phil were in the army during the Korean War when he died. Bob was immediately released per army regulations to take over the farm though Bob never wanted to be a farmer. He had a B.A. in business. He was forced by the death to take over farm duties which included the share crop of the Elledge 440 acres. Bob seemed to be unaware of the details of the agreement and failed to meet with Grant and Alice two years in succession 1954 and 1955. When Grant died in 1955, Alice terminated the agreement, destroying the farm as a viable business. Phil was a military policeman MP and served a tour of duty in Korea. After his Korean tour, Phil Traveled throughout the US by train looking for AWOL (Absence Without  Leave) soldiers. This was his first time seeing the rest of America. When released from the army, Phil did not return to the farm immediately but joined a custom combine outfit that began the harvest season somewhere in the Southern Midwest and ended in Montana. When Phil finally returned to the farm three years after Clarence’s death, he underwent  an appendectomy just before harvest. Fortunately, his good friend Eddy Hengen was able to step in and operate the Massey Harris Combine while I drove truck. Phil had purchased a marginal parcel in Township 23 north of Spangle. Bob was finally able to leave farming, and Phil next arranged to farm significant farm in Tensed Idaho under a contract arrangement. The Tensed farm was 35 miles from the Hall farm.

Phil Farm Sale 1972

Repay Bertha Phil mortgage 1972

Bertha Hall to E H Brewer NEQ S3 (155.4) 1972

When the owner reneged on the agreement, this effort failed and Phil, who also was having heart problems gave up farming in 1972, selling the parcel in Township 23 to the Baxters. He was able to use the proceeds from this sale to pay off Bertha’s mortgage.   Bertha sold 155 acres in 1972 to Ed Brewer,  She retained 4.68 acres where the farm buildings and pasture were located and where she was living.

Bertha to Banko 4.67 1975

In 1975, Bertha sold the 4.68 acres and moved to a “mobile” home in Spangle. Bertha suffered a blood clot that traveled to her brain resulting in severe damage and after some time in a home in Fairfield WA she died in 1984.

 Alex, me, Bertha, and Mae in Hawaii 19721900 Farmhouse and Bertha’s small retirement home in 2025

Peacocks on the Roof 2025

New Addition to Farmhouse 2025

 

Detail of 1940 Dairy Barn Hayloft with 1×4 laminated wood rafters in 2025

Surge vacuum milking machine   Cream Separator

Alice Lucas Elledge widow 1955-1956 1 year William Grant Elledge

Alice Lucas was the granddaughter of Lydia Spangle and daughter of Joseph Lucas and was owner of the 160 acres west of Horace’s farm. Alice Married Grant Elledge in 1900 and inherited her father’s parcel upon Joseph’s death in 1906. They had one daughter who died in 1906. Alice retained control of her father’s land until her death.

When Grant died in 1955, Alice terminated the share crop agreement with the Hall family prior to her own death.

Her estate sold 120 acres to Ed Brewer.  The estate deeded 120 acres to Maxine Elledge Hubbard.

Maxine Elledge Hubbard widow 1972-1984 12 years Ralph Wood Hubbard

Maxine was born in 1914, the daughter of Edwin E Elledge and Elise Edna Elledge. Her brother was Richard Gerald Elledge 1918–1939. She married Ralph Wood Hubbard. They had one son Richard E ‘”Rich” Hubbard 1950-2018 and one daughter Gail Hubbard Callahan. The family moved to Lewiston Idaho in 1955. Maxine, as the sole living heir of the Elledges, was deeded 120 acres by the estate of Alice Lucas Elledge in 1957. Another 200 Elledge acres were not deeded to Maxine. Because Spokane County never initiated a tax foreclosure on the Elledge property, we know that someone, most likely Maxine, continued to pay the taxes on all 320 acres.

Growing Up on a Palouse Farm – 1940s and 1950s

I was born in 1943 and my memories of childhood begin around 1948. I grew up on the 600 acres farm my dad Clarence was farming and I retain detailed memories of the entire farm and its rolling hills. The Hall family has a photo of the Elledge barn across Keavy Road taken in 1944 but by 1948, only the Elledge hand-pumped well remained. The well was covered over soon after.

Once a year, my dad visited Grant and Alice in Spangle to go over the past year and to plan for the next year. From the time I was a toddler til I had memory in 1948 and until 1953, I accompanied dad on his annual state of the farm visits. I remember Grant and Alice and their home in Spangle. I always felt warm and welcomed. I now realize that Grant and Alice had lost their only child, daughter Katherine, at age 1 in 1906. I would listen to dad and Grant discussing crop rotation decisions for the coming year, what dad had learned from the WSU extension service, how things had gone the previous year, crop yields and prices, and so on. At my young age, I don’t know how much I absorbed.

When Alice terminated the Hall share crop agreement, I was all too aware at the age of 13 that there would be no money for the family to send me to college and I responded by starting to work (driving truck during harvest and plowing in the fall) on Erna Siever’s thousand acre farm to earn money for college. I had no drivers license at this age but driving on gravel farm roads meant virtually no chance of being stopped by the highway patrol. Bertha opened a joint checking account for the two of us at this time and the account remained open until 1967 when I returned to graduate school in Hawaii. Ida and Clarence also had joint accounts throughout the remainder of Ida’s life after Horace’s death. An unusual family tradition.

Growing up alongside by dad Clarence and my older brother Phil, I acquired knowledge and skills that I have retained throughout my life. Dad taught me to drive the Jeep at age 5 or 6 and the jeep was my primary means to move around the farm and local area before I was able to qualify for a driver’s license.

My dad designed a new church when the 19th Century church was condemned in the 1940s. A licensed architect drew up the formal plans and dad organized the construction using all volunteer skilled Spangle workers, beginning with dad digging the church basement with a D7 Caterpillar bulldozer he borrowed from Jens Rasmussen. I observed the building of the forms, the pouring of the concrete, the laying of concrete blocks, and all other elements needed for the complete church that was dedicated in 1952. My single role in the  construction was to remove the wooden forms from the basement heating ducts when I was in the second or third grade after school because I was the only one small enough to climb into the ducts.

I observed my dad building ,over two winters, a plywood 20 foot cabin cruiser powered by a marine modified jeep engine and launched in 1951 on Lake Pend Oreille ID where the boat lived in a boathouse for two years until his death. Dad learned  to troll for lake salmon which were smoked at the lake.

At the same time, dad remodeled our old bunkhouse into a small two story two bedroom retirement home with one car garage. I observed all steps in this process, helping where I could. Dad never got to live in this house, but mom and I moved in when Phil married. I lived here last in 1967 and mom moved to Spangle in 1975.

Farm kids all need to do farming chores growing up. Mine probably started at age 5 gathering eggs from a large hen house with nesting shelves. The fresh eggs were gathered twice a day and stored in the walk in refrigerator in 144 egg paper organizers. I next learned to wean the dairy calves and teach them to drink fresh milk from a bucket.

Dad fenced the entire Alice parcel and put a gate between our land and hers so he could use the timothy grass draws on her parcel as a fall pasture for the dairy cows. In the fall, after morning milking, dad would open the gate between parcels and the cows would spend the day grazing the grass draws. After school from age 6, my first after school chore with the assistance of our shepherd dog was to bring the herd back to the barn for milking . At the time, dad kept a Holstein bull with the herd of 15 cows. I always found the herd together at the farthest draw fence. The herd knew when I arrived it was time to return to the barn for water and milking so they would start the trip as soon as I arrived. I  noticed that the single file line of cows was always in the same order, with the oldest (and smartest) cow leading. (In the Spring, when grass was inviting outside the barnyard, she knew how to open the barnyard gate using her horn. Only she could do this.)The order of cows seemed to be in order of age followed by the weaned calves followed by the bull, always last. Disturbingly, the bull had a habit of occasionally walking backward, looking at us. He never did anything but this was still unnerving.

The next task I learned was scraping and painting our many farm buildings. Dad built me a wood working bench with tools in our house’s basement and I learned to build things like birdhouses. When mom and I moved to the retirement home, I disassembled her concrete block, glass roofed greenhouse from behind the old house and rebuilt it near the retirement home. I laid the concrete block base but redesigned the roof still using the original glass roof segments but with a flat fiberglass top so it didn’t block the view from the house. Mom used the greenhouse for her garden and flowers til she moved to Spangle in 1975.

Milking  cows waited til I was big enough.  Because  the herd was reduced from 15 cows to 2, It was simpler and easier for me to milk the remaining cows by hand not using the heavy surge milking machines. The milk was separated by a motor driving centrifugal cream separator and the skim milk and cream were stored in our walk in refrigerator. Excess skim milk was given to the dairy calves and the pigs. We churned our own butter and used cream for cooking and drinking, with the excess cream and eggs periodically taken to the Spokane coop.

The population of the Spangle Township was in the hundreds and constantly shrinking. The population was totally of European origin; English, German, Danish, French, Scottish, and one Italian bachelor that built his own concrete block house next to the train tracks in Spangle. There were no blacks, no Asians, no Hispanics.  The primary cultural distinction in the community was what church you were affiliated with like the Seventh Day Adventists, who worship on Saturday and are vegetarians and who owned the Upper Columbia Academy south of Spangle. The German community were largely Lutheran and Erna Sievers attended church regularly in Spokane. Grandma Ida was German but was a central supporter of the Spangle Community Church in Spangle which professes itself to be non-denominational. By tradition it hired its ministers from the New Hope Christian College in Eugene OR.

The telephone system featured a single switchboard office located on Main street in Spangle. It was run by a mother and daughter team who lived in the office, took shift turns to answer the phone and would wake at night in cases of emergency. Individual party lines ran from this office to each home in town and the farms. A party was made up of all the phones connected to a single line, in our case the Rasmussens, the Halls, and the Hollings. Rings were generated by turning a crank on your phone and each line on a party was assigned a unique ring signal made up of long and short rings. The operator who was connected to each party line was one long ring. All calls within the township were connected by the operator connecting your calling line to the receiving line and the operator ringing the receiver’s ring signal. The operator and every phone on both party lines could pick up a phone and listen to the conversation or talk if they wanted to. The switchboard had a connection to the switchboard of every other neighboring town’s switchboard and to Spokane which by this time had installed rotary dial phones.

This phone system made for a unique and now extinct cultural hub. The operators knew and could recognize everyone in the township and what cars and trucks they drove. With a bay window on Main street the operators could tell any caller if their vehicle was parked in town or was seen driving by recently. They could tell the caller if the vehicle was parked at the post office, a grocery store, the drug store, a gas station, the barber shop, a tavern, etc. Any emergency was immediately known by anyone interested. When dad died in 1953, Janet had called Dr Pollack in Rosalia and when the Doctor arrived to pronounce his passing, Janet probably called our minister and someone, probably the telephone operator, notified the Highway Patrol to stop our Studebaker  so mom, Bob, and could return home, by which time town residents were already arriving.

If you add to this the town busybodies who make it their business to know all the gossip about anyone (feuds, affairs, drinking, mysterious perhaps illegal doings) you have the makings of a very claustrophobic cultural environment. Growing up inside this environment one thinks of it as natural. One taboo seems to have been discussing death. In 1956 a classmate of mine lost his dad in a tractor accident. His dad had been my bus driver. After the initial event and funeral, the deaths were never again mentioned, at least in my experience.

When dad died and Phil returned to the farm my farm chores and skills increased, learning mechanics, welding, brazing, soldering, machinery and engine repair and overhaul. I learned to lay concrete blocks, rock walls, the church barbecue and walkways, building a brick garage in Spokane for Aunt Mabel and Uncle Reed,, fencing, etc. I had observed dad’s electrical wiring but continue to learn after. Phil built a Hereford beef herd and started custom  haying for nearby farmers with negotiated contracts. He borrowed money from mom to buy an Alis Chalmers Model B tractor with belly 7 foot mower blade. I was the primary operator of the AC mower and spent every year after school ended in June helping Phil with the haying. This continued til 1967. For a couple of years, Phil also contracted to mow the clover on farm fields where the government was paying farmers not to grow wheat. For this work, Phil agreed to pay me $10 a day to mow clover with the AC, but for his own hay I was not paid. I needed to work harvest seasons for other farmers to be able to attend college.

In 1952, dad bought a 43 acre lakefront place on Coeur d’Alene lake near Worley ID where he planned to move the fishing cruiser. The property had large grass pastures, a Delicious apple orchard, a spring, and a small cottage. It was bordered on the south by a very large property owned by Potlatch lumber. Potlatch had long ago logged the property and was using the lake front to tie   booms from logs harvested and floated down the St Joe river . The logs were stored in these booms awaiting tow to the Couer d’Alene saw mill. The Potlatch property also had large pastures. To the North of our lake property was another large property owned by a major heating oil supplier in Spokane. This property also had large pastures. Phil negotiated with both neighbors to allow him to graze his beef herd during the summer. As part of the agreement Phil agreed to maintain cattle fences on these properties so Phil and I spent a lot of time preparing wooden fence posts and building and maintaining fences. It became my job in the summer to periodically drive to the lake property to count all the cows to make sure they were still there and still healthy. During the first years, I drove the Jeep using gravel roads for the entire trip since I was unlicensed. These trips and walking the three properties are among my fondest memories. On one occasion the cows broke through a Potlatch fence and Phil and I had to hunt them down in very rugged, undeveloped land near a lake inlet. We succeeded in finding and getting them back with the shepherd dog the only casualty after she encountered  a porcupine.

On this lake inlet, I later discovered a single old man on a small goat farm living in a shack with attached barn. He used a hand scythe to cut his grass to store in the barn to feed his goats over the winter. Because I was young, he seemed to enjoy my visit. I briefly wondered whether a life like his would suit me but quickly dismissed this idea. I was never lonely growing up and found ways to be constantly busy. I enjoyed occasional visits from relatives and other farm kids but didn’t initiate contact. I think both my parents worried that I was shy to the point of being anti-social but this was not my perception. In high school, college, and graduate school I always seemed to have one friend that I was comfortable socializing with. And my wife, Fung-Lin, has been my best friend since we first met at a Taiwan Christmas party in 1965.

Farm House in Winter, 4 Siblings, Greenhouse, Dad’s boat on St Joe River

Janet and me on patio of mom’s retirement home, Janet’s Whitworth graduation 1956, Rockford FFA show with Winning Hereford Steer  1961

Barn on Sievers Parcel had Antique Doctors Carriage Inside

I  remember plowing a particular parcel on Erna Siever’s farm during the 6PM to 6AM night shift, running their D4 Cat pulling a 6 bottom plow  after harvest and before school began in 1957. When I searched for this parcel using the SCOUT map, I discovered that this parcel has two different parcel numbers: 32012.9015 shown to be owned today by Paul Sievers, Erna’s husband who died in 1946 and 32012.9016 both are 134.78 acres and both taxpayers are shown as SIEVERS FARM LLC.

Around 1957 the Pacific Northwest Pipeline Corporation (later acquired by El Paso Natural Gas, now owned by Williams Companies) ran their 1500 mile pipeline from the San Juan Basin in New Mexico to Spokane and other northwest cities across the Siever’s farmland leaving a clay scar where wheat would no longer grow.

In 1956, Phil towed Willa’s (Bob’s) wife’s 1951 Plymouth Belvedere Coup from Helena MT to the farm after her car suffered a broken connecting rod. Phil made me a deal that if I overhauled the engine, I would be able to use the car. Mom’s older sister Mabel’s Husband Reed Morrow (a retired rodeo cowboy who owned an auto repair garage in Spokane) helped order parts for the engine and taught me how to overhaul the engine. He suggested I replace the piston rings at the same time (I now learn from Kelly (Bob’ son) that the engine had been using oil when it broke down). Dad had built a cement lined hole in our farm garage floor to allow working under a car or truck so I successfully overhauled the engine in our farm garage. After I was licensed, the Plymouth allowed me to get work on farms further from Home where I could earn more money and I continued to drive the Plymouth during summers til I graduated from College in 1965.

In my Junior year in High School I got a harvest job driving truck for a man who was farming his father-in-law’s farm in Spangle near the old Greenlee farm. This farmer also owned a much larger flat land irrigated wheat farm near Reardan WA west of Spokane and after the Spangle harvest was finished I drove the Plymouth to Reardan to drive truck on this larger farm. The harvest season was long and I  earned much more than when working for Erna.

My final year in High School was a bit traumatic for me. The area schools had just consolidated into the Liberty School District but a new school had not been built. All Spangle High Teachers were let go and the students had to be bused to the Fairfield High School about 19 miles and 30 minute by highway. We first had to be bused from our homes to the Spangle school where a single bus transported us to Fairfield. Classes were about three times the size with new teachers and new students. About the only positive memory I have of this year was participation in the annual FFA (future farmers of America) steer showing event held by the Spokane County FFA in the spring. Fairfield had an FFA Chapter, unlike Spangle, and an agricultural specialist teacher. I purchased two calves, a Hereford and a Shorthorn in the fall and raised them on hay and molasses covered rolled grain to fatten them for the Spring show. Rockford school still had a standing barn so a practice show was held in Rockford for our steers and I won a ribbon. At the Spokane show, both steers were sold and I ended up with a profit from the little enterprise. In a bit of irony, my Liberty High School graduation certificate was signed by the Chairman of the Board of Directors Ed Brewer.

When I graduated from High School in 1961, I worked as a truck driver on the Tom Perringer Farms LLC in Belmont WA – now with a Farmington WA mailing address,  a 3000 acre LLC with three John Deere 95H combines and three large farms; two near Pullman. In 1962 Tom Perringer  added a forth combine and I operated this machine for four harvest seasons. Tom Perringer also acquired another large farm near Couer d’Alene ID in 1962.

Wages on this LLC were much higher than average and the harvest season was longer with grass harvest first followed by the wheat harvest, and I was able to comfortably attend WSU without working during the school year. The four combines were all John Deere 95Hs modified to separate Merion bluegrass seed that was further processed in Perringer’s own grass seed processing plant on the farm. Perringer Farms followed a centuries old native American tradition of burning the grass lands in the fall which stimulates the growth of grass (and seed) the following year to feed the buffalo and horses. This Perringer Farms practice did lead to issues with neighboring farmers worried that the intentionally set fires might get out of control.

The Evolution of Palouse Farming Equipment

When Horace and Grant began farming after 1890, most farm work was done by teams of horses. The exception was the stationary harvester which was needed to separate grain from the straw and chaff. These machines were stationary, although they had steel wheels to move them from farm parcel to parcel. The pulling was done with steam tractors who moved the big machines and then powered them in operation. Steam tractors were useless for pulling farm implements because of the steep rolling hills of the Palouse. But steam tractors existed in the Palouse as witnessed at the annual steam tractor pulling contest held each year at the fall Spokane County Fair. A handful of these tractors were kept operational just for this annual event which was always a highlight of the fair.

The grain was cut and bound by a horse drawn grain binder that usually required a single operator. The bundles of grain were collected by large horse drawn wagons and brought to the stationary harvester. Aunt Mae confirmed that Horace had a stationary harvester and estimated they required a crew 20 men during harvest season. The bunk houses and the  kitchens needed to house and feed this crew were large. Many in the crews were neighboring farmers who probably also jointly purchased the stationary harvester which moved from farm to farm during the harvest season.

We used  a 1920’s portable steel wheeled grain roller mill jointly owned by the Halls and the Hollands. We used a 1930s Massey Harris rubber wheeled tractor to move it from farm to farm and used the PTO (power take off) wheel attached to the rear of the tractor engine and a long rubber flat belt to power the roller mill. I am unable to find photos of this roller mill.

In the 1920’s, the stationary harvester was replaced by the combine a combination capable of cutting the grain, feeding the grain into the harvesting machinery and separating the grain from the straw and chaff all powered by a gasoline engine. Because of the Palouse’s steep rolling hills, this machine still needed to be pulled by a team of 8 horses and required 2 operators, the machine operator and the team driver. I have a photo of the  combine used by Clarence in the 1920s. This machine was not a hillside combine so it would not operate properly on a side sloping hill. If this machine was acquired before 1922, there is good reason to believe that Horace and Grant jointly purchased the machine and that it was used to harvest all 600 acres of the Hall-Elledge farm. Horace, Grant, and Clarence would have been able to operate this setup themselves.

The 1930s saw the introduction of the crawler or track tractor to Palouse farming so that horses were no longer needed to pull the various farming equipment. 1935 was a special year when my dad Clarence acquired in International 2 ton truck, an International model T35 track tractor, and a McCormick (International) model 51 hillside combine. Harvest threshing machinery needs to be horizontally level so the hillside combine was invented in the 1930s specifically for the Palouse rolling hills.  I imagine dad was able to acquire all this new equipment in 1935 because he was farming all 600 acres under an agreement with Grant. 

The United States shifted virtually all production to war materials in  1940 and farm equipment  manufacturing dropped to a quarter of 1940 levels by 1943, much of it  producing replacement parts.  Domestic production didn’t recover until 1946-1948. 

After the war, Clarence purchased a 1948 Navy Blue Willys Jeep, which dad taught me to drive soon after, a 1948 Studebaker 2 ton truck, and a 1948 Pontiac woody station wagon (whose flathead eight cylinder engine failed after less than a thousand miles!). The 1935 International truck was parked in the yard and I used to pretend to drive it. Clarence purchased a new International TD9 track tractor in 1952. I used to ride both the 1935 and 1952 tractors with dad as he worked in the fields and rode on the McCormick 51 combine during harvests.

Self propelled Combines requiring a single operator, were introduced by John Deere in 1947 and Bob and Phil purchased a new Massey Harris self propelled hillside combine in 1954 or 1955 to replace the old 1935 McCormick 51 which required two to operate.

Today’s Palouse Farming Equipment

Jumping forward to today, tractors have evolved into giant quad track machines with Case and John Deere dominating. These machines may cost a million dollars or more with used machines fetching $300,000. These tractors are virtually the only ones you see when touring the Palouse.

Quad track tractor technology centers on its four individually driven, oscillating tracks designed to provide superior traction, flotation, and reduced soil compaction compared to traditional tire-based systems. Key features include a positive-drive system for continuous power, an oscillating undercarriage for consistent ground contact, and a design that distributes weight more evenly. Many models also incorporate advanced precision farming technology such as subscription-free guidance systems and data-driven features to increase efficiency.

Quad track tractors are uniquely well suited for the Palouse rolling hills.

Low-disturbance applicators/planters: A wide implement (e.g., a 60-foot wide Case IH Nutri-Placer) can cover significant ground. In field tests, one such machine was capable of covering over 900 acres in a 12-hour day when paired with a high-speed, low-disturbance row unit.

Hillside Combines have increased in size some with headers 60 feet wide. (The John Deere 95H wheat header I operated for four years during college 1962-67 had a  15 foot header.) Again Case and John Deere dominate in the Palouse. These machines also may cost more than a million dollars.

A combine can harvest anywhere from 100 to over 200 acres of wheat per day, with the exact amount depending on the size of the machine, its header size, and the yield of the wheat. Modern machines with large headers can harvest as much as 18 acres per hour, which adds up to over 250 acres in a 14-hour day for high-capacity models.

Modern combine key technologies include automated adjustments, real-time data monitoring for yield and grain quality, and high-capacity systems like large grain tanks and fast unloading augers to maximize productivity and minimize downtime.

 

We saw six huge Case Combines with wide headers at one site near Pullman on our tour of the Palouse. These six machines in a one month harvest season would be able to harvest 45,000 acres! This one operation can harvest two townships a season!

Palouse Wheat Varieties

Gaines was developed in Washington state by crossing the Japanese dwarf variety Norin 10 with the popular local variety Brevor. Released in 1961, it was revolutionary for its higher yields and shorter straw, which made it more resistant to lodging. This wheat’s success laid the foundation for the Green Revolution by demonstrating the potential of semidwarf wheats, with derivatives eventually being distributed globally. Gaines was developed by O.A. Vogel , a USDA agronomist at Washington State University. Gaines was the wheat grown on the Tom Perringer Farm LLC during my years working there.

Palouse wheat varieties include Hard White, Soft White, Hard Red Winter, and Hard Red Spring, which are all grown by companies like Palouse Brand. Some heritage varieties, such as Amber Eden, Turkey Red, and White Sonora, , are also grown in the Palouse region and are available through companies like Palouse Heritage Grains.

Hard wheat, with its high protein and gluten content, is ideal for making chewy products like artisan bread, rolls, and pizza dough. Soft wheat, which is low in protein, is better for tender baked goods such as cakes, pastries, cookies, and crackers, as it creates a more delicate and crumbly texture.

While winter wheat is the dominant crop in the Palouse region, often comprising over 70% of the acreage planted with wheat, although spring wheat is also a significant component of crop rotation. The exact proportions fluctuate annually based on factors like weather, market prices, and the needs of the crop rotation system. Winter wheat generally produces higher yields, but spring wheat is a vital part of the region’s diversified agriculture. 

An era of Farm Cooperatives

Clarence was a big believer in farm cooperatives belonging to the Inland Empire Pea Growers Association and the Plaza Grange Supply.

The Inland Empire Pea Growers Association, Inc. (IEPGA) was founded around 1940 and was disbanded in 1992. They built  wooden grain elevators along the NPR rail lines in Spangle and other Palouse communities and we delivered all our grain (mostly wheat, barley, occasionally rye) and split peas (used in split pea soup) to the Spangle elevator every year. The coop was responsible for timing the market and selling the crops stored at the best possible price. Dad would occasionally visit the coop at its headquarters in Oakesdale, Washington.

The Plaza Grange Supply was a cooperative purchasing association headed by Ted Mantz, my sister Janet’s father in law. It was located in a large warehouse on highway 195 in downtown Plaza WA. It supplied virtually everything a farmer needed including seed, fertilizer, herbicides, insecticides, bulk leaded gasoline, diesel, motor oils, lubricating grease, tools, cases of soda. Etc. The supply was able to deliver government subsidized fuel directly to the farm’s fuel storage tanks. Most everything else could be loaded onto the farmer’s truck.

Sustainable Crop Rotation Systems

Clarence used a sustainable crop rotation planting winter wheat, spring wheat, split peas, and leaving fallow years. Split peas and lentils are still grown in the Palouse by farmers using crop rotation systems. One small field on our family parcel was kept in Alfalfa for winter cow feed. All the draws were seeded in Timothy grass to control erosion and the hay sold for horses.

Drier Western Palouse: In regions receiving about 10–12 inches of annual rainfall, the traditional two-year winter wheat–summer fallow rotation is common and often the dominant system. Fallowing in these areas is primarily a strategy to conserve enough soil moisture for the next year’s crop. Farmers may use “chem fallow” (chemical fallow) for weed control to reduce tillage and prevent wind erosion.

Moister Eastern Palouse: In higher rainfall areas, fallow years are less common. Instead, farmers often use annual cropping systems or a rotation of winter wheat with other crops like peas, lentils, barley, or canola to maintain soil fertility and break disease cycles.

Modern Approaches: Many farmers are adopting integrated pest management (IPM) systems and diverse crop rotations (e.g., three-year rotations including peas or lentils) to improve soil health, control pests and weeds, and reduce the need for both fallow periods and herbicides. These practices help to leave enough residue on the surface to conserve moisture and prevent erosion, challenging the traditional reliance on fallowing and deep tilling. 

Increases in the land farmed by a single farmer or corporation accompanied by an increase in contract based farming.

From 1890 to today there have been vast changes in the equipment used for Palouse farming that have greatly increased the amount of land a single farmer or corporation can farm. These changes are also accompanied by increases in the capital needed for the equipment. At the same time a surprising amount of farm land remains in the hands of pioneer farm families who have created LLCs or various forms of trust to pass the land on to subsequent generations. Much of this retention has been accompanied by absentee ownership where the distant owners contract the  farming to others. There is also a big increase in specialized farming activities such as harvesting that may be contracted to organizations with multiple combines. Some farms may handle the preparation and planting but the cost of modern quad tractors has also skyrocketed. Judging by our recent drive through the Palouse, absentee farming appears to dominate. Farm buildings are rare and sparse. The population of the Palouse today is a fraction of what it was when I was growing up.

One estimate today is that the average Palouse farm is 1800 acres, triple what my dad was farming in the 1950s. Erna Sievers and her son were already farming more than 1000 acres in the late 1940s.. Today this farm today is operated as:

SIEVERS FARM LLC. DBA Name: · Physical Address: E 5714 WATT RD SPANGLE, WA 99031. Phone: (509) 245-3203. Mailing Address: E 5714 WATT RD SPANGLE, WA 99031

A Google Satellite view of the Erna Siever’s farm buildings show few changes from the time I worked for her except that the single steel grain bin tank from the 1950s has now grown to nine grain bin tanks. How much land is needed to fill these tanks? Looking around the Spangle township, it doesn’t appear that Erna and Harold acquired more land than they had in 1950 but their LLC is  farming a lot more land for someone else.

I think Tom Perringer Farms is one example of a Palouse LLC that owns most or all of the land it farms. In addition to growing grass, Perringer Farms has adopted low disturbance farming for wheat. Today Perringer Farms LLC sports the only wind farm we saw on our driving tour of the Palouse from Spokane to Pullman. The Palouse is very windy.

Robert “Bob” Sievers, Paul “Bud” Siever’s son, in an 2016 Spokesman Review interview talked about using direct seed “ugly” farming for the 2,700 acres he was farming at that time.

Bob is the current owner of the Hall 155 acres plus the Alice 120 acres and I believe he farms the Hubbard land as well. He seems to own only a fraction of the total land he farms under the name:

SIEVERS. DBA Name: ROLLING HILLS FARMS INC. Physical Address: S 27310 DOWNING RD SPANGLE, WA 99031. Phone: (509) 245-3500. Mailing Address: S 27310 DOWNING RD SPANGLE WA 99031

A township has 36 Sectors where each sector is one square mile in size so a township is 6 miles by 6 miles in size. There are 23,040 acres in a township so at 3600 acres the number of farms drops to six average farms today in Spangle township, and two of these would be the Sievers LLC and Corporation.

What strikes one in roaming the SCOUT map is how many of the original families from the 1950s still own land in Spangle, usually as LLCs or various forms of trust. Just one example; our neighbors to the east on Keavy road, the Hollings, which owned 240 acres next to the Hall land now own several more 160 acre parcels nearby and operate as the Holling Bypass Trust, with John H as trustee (Johnny was a couple years older than me.) I don’t know who farms this land.

Low-Disturbance Farming

Low disturbance farming is now the dominant form of farming in the Palouse and it is leading to big increases in the sizes of farms; now more than 3800 acres average in Canada. On our driving tour of the Palouse we saw only one old wheeled tractor and plow. The average farm size in the Palouse is already 1800 acres and climbing rapidly.

Time is running out to limit climate change from greenhouse gases

Here Comes the Sun; Bill McKibben, 2025

At 210 pages this short book is intended to paint an optimistic picture of our chances to limit global temperature rise to a livable maximum. The book is packed with decades long activist experience and remarkable solar power technical development. The reader can reach their own conclusions whether this picture warrants optimism. But the book is well worth reading.

Solar power generation technology that required breakthroughs in solar panels, storage batteries, and power generating wind turbines have, in only the past 15 years, succeeded in joining Moore’s law of  growth in digital computing power as the second exponentially advancing technology in human history.

Thanks to Chinese and other nation’s investments, the world is now in position to replace the burning of fossil fuels with greenhouse gas free energy to meet the total needs of the planet. Now the question becomes – will solar based infrastructure be deployed in time to limit temperature rise to livable levels. In McKibben’s view we may only have five  years to do so.

Solar power is now far and away the cheapest power source in human history and it continues to drop in price. On the positive side, China has made the most progress, reducing its dependence on coal burning generation more than any other country. China is also the leader in the development and production of EV cars, trucks, and buses.  Even the petrol-states of the middle east are converting to solar power generation. In America, California and Texas (surprise?) are leading the way in adopting solar power. Rolling blackouts in California are (almost) a thing of the past. Arizona’s SRP (home to valley of the sun) is slowing down deployment by charging $50 a month just to connect your home solar to their grid. They should be paying homeowners and businesses to connect.

The global south, most close to the equator stand most to gain and adoption is happening at the grass roots first with self installed Chinese panels being placed everywhere. Cheap power is central to reducing inequality and improving lives throughout the globe.

The cost of converting the globe as fast as possible could be expedited with surprisingly little investment but the returns on such investment would be much lower than other alternate investments for billionaires and wealthy retirement funds. In the investment world, saving the planet does not enter the calculations.

The risks (of coups or outright corruption) are greater as well. McKibben suggests that the World Bank and IMF should shoulder these risks but that seems unlikely.

So we have an unstoppable exponential growth source of clean energy that may not get deployed in time to save the planet.

McKibben ends talking about grass roots efforts in the U.S. where key decisions regarding building wind and solar farms are usually local decisions that may come down to the whims of one or two key participants.

He notes that the Covid pandemic demonstrated a widespread and fast public and political response but the threat of immediate personal risk was at the heart of this pandemic. Within a five year period only those directly affected by weather and fire events are likely to be motivated to take action.

And the billionaire class are busy investing in survival pods and space travel! Like Trump, only they matter – no empathy for anyone else.

The Current American Oligarchic System

The System; Who rigged it, how we fix it; Robert B Reich, 2022

The typical American, as I have shown, has little wealth and has “near-zero, statistically non-significant” political power. Almost all wealth and power now reside in the oligarchy. Yet the oligarchy is not committed to the public good. It does not want to raise the wages of working Americans, reduce inequalities, guarantee all Americans access to good health care and a world class education, or stop climate change. The oligarchy’s allegiance is to corporate shareholders, and its major interest is enlarging their  and its own wealth. The easiest way to lift share values and enlarge the oligarchy’s wealth are to hold down wages, roll back regulations, find ever cheaper places to produce products and services, fight unions, and secure giant tax cuts that result in less money for education, health care, and everything else most Americans need.

In the 1980s and 1990s almost a quarter of all public corporations in the United States were at one time the target of an attempted hostile takeover, opposed by a firm’s management. Another quarter received takeover bids supported by management.

Corporate Raider Carl Icahn and Donald Trump

Few conditions change minds more profoundly than the imminent possibility of being sacked. Hence across America, CEOs who were now threatened by being replaced by CEOs who would maximize shareholder value began to view their responsibilities differently: they would maximize shareholder value even more. The corporate statesmen of previous decades became the corporate butchers of the 1980s and 1990s, whose nearly exclusive focus was — in the meat ax parlance that became fashionable — “to cut the fat,” “cut to the bone,” and make their companies “lean and mean.” By 1997, the Business Roundtable reversed the position it had taken in 1981. Now it declared the “job of business is in fact only to maximize shareholder wealth.”

Between 1981, when Jack Welch took the helm at GE, and 2001 when he retired, GE’s stock catapulted from $13 billion to $500 billion. Welch accomplished this largely by slashing American jobs and abandoning the communities GE had been rooted in. Before he became CEO, most GE employees had spent their entire careers with the company, usually at one of its facilities in upstate New York. But between 1981 and 1985, a quarter of them — 100,000 in all — were laid off, earning Welch the moniker of “neutron Jack,” along with the growing admiration of the business community. Between the mid-1980s and the late 1990s, GE slashed its American workforce by half again (to about 160,000) while nearly doubling its foreign workforce (to 130,000)…As GE opened facilities abroad, staffed by foreign workers costing a small fraction of what GE had paid its American employees, the corporation had all but abandoned upstate New York.

Giant corporations that dominate an industry also gain political power. They provide significant campaign contributions, have platoons of lobbyists and lawyers, and directly employ many voters. As a result, their CEO’s phone calls to members of congress are promptly returned. Items they want included in legislation are dutifully inserted; those they don’t want are scrapped. They get tax loopholes, subsidies, bailouts, regulatory exemptions, and loan guarantees they seek. They can stop laws in their tracks. Never underestimate the monetary value of such largess. The financial returns on political investments are among the highest in the whole system.

The three systemic changes I have outlined — from stakeholder to shareholder capitalism, from unionized workers to corporate monopolies, and from regulation of Wall Street to letting the street run wild — profoundly altered the American system. It created a jaw-dropping wealthy and powerful oligarchy. It shafted just about everyone else.

      

Jamie Dimon and Sandy Weill <> <> <> <> <> Koch Brothers

Dig under the surface of the system and you see individuals making deals that generate billions for themselves — such as Carl Icahn’s corporate raids, Jack Welch’s attacks on GE’s workers and unions, Warren Buffet’s investments in corporations with moats, and Sandy Weill’s and Jamie Dimon’s unfettered financial supermarkets and betting parlors.

Dig deeper and you see how these deals depended on seemingly small changes in laws and regulations, such as preventing companies defending themselves from raiders, neutering antitrust enforcement, imposing small fines for firing union organizers, refusing to regulate derivatives, and dismantling Glass-Steagall.

Bore still deeper and you see a vicious cycle in which, starting around 1980, wealth and power began concentrating around a relative small group at the top, giving them increasingly political clout to get changes in laws and regulations that concentrated their wealth and power even more.

The first three decades after WWII featured a growing middle class. a steadily more inclusive democracy, and a nation beginning to grapple with problems like poverty, inequality of opportunity, and environmental decay. African American and women slowly gained footholds in the system. Mass production begat mass consumption demanded steady jobs with good wages. This balance relied on strong unions, a government willing to regulate corporations, and large corporations rooted in their communities and responsible for the well being of their employees and neighbors as well are shareholders.

The  last forty years, the opposite has occurred. The middle class has shrunk, democracy is too often malfunctioning, and the nation has turned its back on climate change, poverty, widening inequality, and the evils of racism and xenophobia. As I’ve said, the economy doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game in which the winners do better only to the extent losers do worse. But power is necessarily a zero-sum game. Certain people possess it only to the extent other people don’t. Some people gain it only when others lose it. The connection between the economy and power is critical. As power has concentrated  in the hands of a few, those few have grabbed nearly all the economic gains for themselves.

Techno Feudalism – OpenAI

Empire of AI; Dreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman’s OpenAI, Karen Hao 2025

In their book Power and Progress, MIT economists and Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson argue that every technology revolution must begin with a rallying ambition. It is the promoted of a technology benefiting everyone that puts in motion the long journey of amassing enough talent and resources to turn it into a reality. After analyzing one thousand years of technology history, the authors conclude that technologies are not inevitable. The ability to advance them is driven by a collective belief that they are worth advancing. The irony is that for this very reason, new technologies rarely default to bringing widespread prosperity, the authors continue. Those who successfully rally for a technology’s creation are those who have the power and resources to do the rallying. As they turn their ideas into reality, the vision they impose–of what the technology is and whom it can benefit–is thus the vision of a narrow elite, imbued with all their blind spots and self-serving philosophies. Only through cataclysmic shifts in society or powerful organized resistance can a technology transform from enriching the few to lifting the many.

The two features of technology revolutions–their promise to deliver progress and their tendency instead to reverse it for the most vulnerable–are perhaps truer than ever for the moment we now find ourselves in with artificial intelligence. Since its conception, the development and use of AI has been propelled by tantalizing dreams of modernity and shaped by a narrow elite with money and influence to bring forth their conception of the technology. That conception is what has led to the exploding social, labor, and environmental cost that are playing out around the world today, particularly, as we’ll see, in many Global South countries, for which the consequences of their dispossession by historical empires still linger in delayed economic development and weaker political institutions.

“In February 2020, I (Hao) published a profile for MIT Technology Review, drawing on my observations from my time in the (OpenAI) office, nearly three dozen interviews, and a handful of internal documents.

“There is a misalignment between what the company publicly espouses and how it operates behind closed doors .. Over time it has allowed a fierce competitiveness and mounting pressure for ever more funding to erode its founding ideals of transparency, openness, and collaboration.”

“…OpenAI would ‘t speak to me again for three years.”

Alan Turing published in 1950 the article “Can machines think?”  proposing the Turing Test, also known as the imitation game. He argued that if a machine could engage in conversation indistinguishable from a human, it could be considered to be thinking. The term “artificial intelligence” was first coined by John McCarthy, an American computer scientist, in 1956. The field immediately divided into two camps promoting alternate research approaches:

1. Symbolic AI (or GOFAI – Good Old-Fashioned AI)
  • Relies on representing knowledge using human-readable symbols and logical rules,.
  • Aims to explicitly program knowledge and rules into the system, enabling logical reasoning and deduction.
  • Strengths: Transparency and interpretability, logical reasoning, and handling structured problems where rules are well-defined.
  • Weaknesses: Inflexibility in handling complex and ambiguous real-world scenarios, difficulty with large and unstructured datasets, and a labor-intensive process of knowledge acquisition.
  • IBM’s Deep Blue computer that first defeated chess grand masters used symbolic AI in its development.
2. Connectionist AI
  • Models AI processes based on the structure and functioning of the human brain, utilizing artificial neural networks.
  • Learns from data through training, identifying patterns and relationships, rather than relying on explicit programming.
  • Strengths: Excels at pattern recognition, handles large and complex datasets effectively, and demonstrates adaptability.
  • Weaknesses: Often considered “black boxes” due to their lack of transparency, making it difficult to understand how they arrive at decisions, Also requires significant computational resources and extensive training data. 
  • AlphaGo which first beat the Go champion was developed with Connectionist AI
Bridging the gap: Neuro-symbolic AI
Recognizing the limitations of each approach, a new field called neuro-symbolic AI is emerging. This approach aims to combine the strengths of both symbolic AI and connectionist AI, creating systems that are both adaptable and explainable. 
  • This integration allows AI systems to leverage neural networks’ ability to learn from data while utilizing symbolic reasoning to understand and explain their decisions.
  • This approach is especially promising for complex tasks requiring both pattern recognition and logical reasoning, such as medical diagnostics, autonomous driving, and financial modeling. 
The evolution of AI continues to explore ways to effectively combine these approaches to create more robust and trustworthy intelligent systems. 

Effective altruism (EA) is a philosophical and social movement that advocates using evidence and reason to determine the most effective ways to benefit others.

Ilya Sutskever, Sam Altman, Mira Murati, and Greg Brockman, of OpenAI

Following Sutskever’s philosophy of scaling simple neural networks, the question in the early days of OpenAI became: Scale which one?..none of the neural networks that had gained widespread traction seemed to fit the bill. In August 2017, that changed with Google’s invention of a new type of Neural network know as the Transformer. Transformers excel at picking up on long-range patterns. In 2018 OpenAI released the first version of that model, called Generative Pre-Trained Transformer, later nicknamed GPT-1. The second word in the name pre-trained — is a technical term with AI research that refers to training a model on a generic pool of data as a prerequisite for it to learn more specific tasks later. IGPT-1 in other words, had been trained on a generic pool of English to create a rough approximation of how the language worked. The model could then be “fine-tuned” or specialized, later by training on a much more tailored dataset–say Shakespeare plays to teach it how to generate Shakespeare-esque prose.

The cluster of models that OpenAI trained leading up to the final 1.5-billion-parameter version illustrated this relationship (between data, compute, and parameters). Each one (model) fell neatly on a curve of increasing capability. So it was little surprise when the largest one, which they named GPT-2 markedly improved over the juvenile text generation of GPT-1 to produce lengthy and coherent enough prose to be confused with a human’s.

What the darker surprise to the team was the content that GPT-2 was producing with its new coherence. Fed a few words like Hilary Clinton or George Soros, the chattier language model could quickly veer into conspiracy theories.. Small amounts of Nazi propaganda swept up in its training data could surface in horrible ways.

Everything OpenAI did was the opposite of inevitable; the explosive global costs of its massive deep learning models, and the perilous race it sparked across the industry to scale such models to planetary limits, could only have ever arisen from the place it actually did.

GPT-4’s new level of performance convinced OpenAI leadership that it was time to start working toward one of Altman’s long-coveted ambitions: an AI assistant that would look like and feel like the character Samantha (Scarlett Johansson) in the 2013 Spike Jonze movie Her.

But for the OpenAI executives, the rumors (that Anthropic was about to introduce a chatbot) were enough to trigger a decision; the company wouldn’t wait to ready GPT-4 into a chatbot; would release Schulman’s chat-enabled GPT-3.5 model with the Super-assistant team’s brand new chat interface in two weeks, right after thanksgiving (ChatGPT launched Nov 29, 2022 “No, all the GPU’s are melting. Everything is crashing.”).

Within two months ChatGPT had reached one hundred million, at the time the fastest-growing consumer app in history.

ChatGPT catapulted OpenAI from a hot startup well-known within the tech industry into a household name overnight.

The model’s (ChatGPT) high rate of hallucinations, for example, had continued to prove particularly difficult to get under control … an internal document noted that OpenAI’s model had hallucinated during an internal test on roughly 30 percent of so-called closed-domain questions.

AI hallucinations occur when large language models (LLMs) generate false, misleading, or nonsensical information, presenting it as factual. These errors can range from simple inaccuracies to completely fabricated details.

On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots: Can Language Models Be Too Big?

This paper originate within Google. The four big warnings:

First, large language models were growing so vast that they were generating an enormous environmental footprint, as found in Strubell’s paper. This could exacerbate climate change, which ultimately affected everyone but had a disproportionate burden on Global South communities already suffering from broader political, social, and economic precarity.

Second, the demand for data was growing so vast that companies were scraping whatever they could find on the internet, inadvertently capturing more toxic and abusive language as well as subtler racist and sexist references. This, once again, risked harming vulnerable populations the most in ways like the wrongful arrest of the Palestinian man or as documented in Noble’s work.

Third, because such vast databases were difficult to audit and scrutinize, it was extremely challenging to verify what was actually in them, making it harder to eradicate toxicity or more broadly ensure that they reflected evolving social norms and values.

Finally, the model outputs were getting so good that people could easily mistake its statistically calculated outputs as language with will meaning and intent. This would make people prone not only to believing the text to be factual information, but also to consider the model a competent advisor, a trustworthy confidant, and perhaps even something sentient.

 

The kinds of chips that OpenAI needed were expensive. Known as graphic processing units, or GPUs, that had originally been designed to quickly render graphics on computers, such as for giving video games a low-latency, glossy finish. But the same form factor excelled at training the AI models OpenAI wanted to develop, since they shared with graphics-rendering a common requirement: the need for crunching massive amounts of numbers in parallel.

Nvidia was the only chip maker making suitable GPUs and A100s, B100s, H100s, and V100s were are used in OpenAI ‘s modeling.

A15 Bionic Chip

Apple does not figure significantly in this discussion of the development of AGI. Their first Iphone introduced in 2007 incorporated an ARM (Advanced reduced instruction set computer) and a Power IV GPU. In 2017 Apple added an NPU (Neuroprocessing unit to its Bionic chip.

Yanis Varoufakis take on the tech giants damage to capitalism TechnoFeudalism Killed Capitalism

 

Human Rights Watch – a reflection

Righting Wrongs; Three Decades on the Front Lines Battling Abusive Governments, Kenneth Roth, Former Executive Director of Human Rights Watch, 2025

At 325 dense pages, this book is not easily summarized or digested. Human Rights Watch early on developed a strategy that focused on Shaming the governments perpetuating human rights violations. This required extensive and meticulous research and documentation of the abuse, gaining a reputation for the accuracy and reliability of the reports generated, and perfecting the process of publicizing, circulating, and gaining widespread governmental and popular attention to these reports.

The table of contents gives a quick look at the focus of the book: China, Russia and Syria, Saudi Arabia, War Crimes, Israel, The United Nations, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Hungary and Poland, The United States. For each focus, the book highlights the process of research and data collection, preparing reports, meeting key influential government and non government players, pressuring for changes, shaming through publication and pressure.

Karim Khan ICC Chief Prosecutor Putin, Netanyahu, Gallant

For this reader, the most interesting chapter was International Criminal Justice. Here is a detailed discussion of the development of international law and institutions to define global standards for the conducting of war, genocide, suppression of minorities and apartheid. Starting with post WWII Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunal trials conducted by the victors of the war, to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, to the development of a consent of universal jurisdiction (jurisdiction that can involve a single nation or a coalition of nations or an international body) to bring legal cases against violators of human rights anywhere in the world. Included are the histories of the development of the ICC (International Criminal Court) and the ICJ (International Court of Justice), the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Political Rights.

Interested readers are encouraged to read in its entirely this thoughtful, humane, optimistic work.